BILL ANALYSIS                                                                                                                                                                                                    



                                                                  AJR 1
                                                                  Page  1

          Date of Hearing:   May 6, 2009

                           ASSEMBLY COMMITTEE ON INSURANCE
                                   Joe Coto, Chair
                   AJR 1 (Blakeslee) - As Amended:  April 23, 2009
           
          SUBJECT  :   Earthquake damage: mitigation planning.

           SUMMARY  :   Supports the expedient development of mitigation  
          efforts in California by federal and local governmental  
          entities, in cooperation with private enterprises and  
          individuals, to protect against earthquake damage that could  
          result in a loss of life and a dramatic lowering of the state's  
          economic status and vibrancy.  Specifically,  this resolution:

           1)States that the U.S. Geological Survey has predicted an  
            earthquake with a magnitude 6.7 or greater in California  
            within the next 30 years;  

           2)States that the Hayward Fault near San Francisco is predicted  
            to certainly rupture again with greater force than the 1989  
            Loma Prieta Earthquake;  

           3)States that on October 15, 2009, the Great California ShakeOut  
            organized (sic) a drill where millions of people in homes,  
            schools, businesses, government offices, and public places all  
            over Southern California practiced what to do during an  
            earthquake;  

           4)States that the results of the Great California ShakeOut Drill  
            showed that a large earthquake in Southern California would  
            cost approximately $213 billion, including business  
            interruption, and could result in the death of approximately  
            1,800 people;  

           5)States that the last major earthquake on the Hayward Fault was  
            140 years ago, and the last five earthquakes on this fault  
            have come, on average, 140 years apart;  

           6)States that recent reports have confirmed that mitigation  
            techniques can greatly improve the structural stability of a  
            building and dramatically improve the safety of its occupants;  

           7)States that mitigation against earthquake damage is  
            dramatically more cost-effective than repairing buildings  








                                                                  AJR 1
                                                                  Page  2

            after a great earthquake, and economic loss from halted  
            businesses and interrupted services can also be avoided by  
            retrofitting buildings before an earthquake strikes; and  

           8)States that the astronomical costs of repair that occur after  
            a devastating national disaster often fall on the government.  
           
           EXISTING LAW  :

          Establishes state offices and bodies to study and help the state  
          prevent destruction in the event of a major earthquake.  These  
          include the Seismic Safety Commission and the California  
          Earthquake Authority.

           FISCAL EFFECT  :   None.

           COMMENTS  :   

           1)Background.   The Working Group on the California Earthquake  
            Probabilities, a multi-disciplinary group of scientists and  
            engineers from the U.S. Geological Survey and the Southern  
            California Earthquake Center, forecasts a 99% chance of  
            magnitude 6.7 or greater earthquake striking California within  
            the next 30 years.  According to the author, if the epicenter  
            of the earthquake is in a highly populated area such as Los  
            Angeles, the damage could result in the death of 1,800 people  
            and $213 billion in property losses.

           2)Minor amendments to resolution recommended.   The resolution  
            states that on October 15,  2009  a specific drill was organized  
            (page 1, lines 7 - 8).  Since that date has not yet been  
            reached, it is recommended that the date be corrected.  The  
            resolution states that the Legislature strongly supports the  
            expedient development of mitigation efforts across California  
            by "federal and local governmental entities."  It is  
            recommended that "state agencies" be added (page 2, lines 25 -  
            26) to this charge.

           REGISTERED SUPPORT / OPPOSITION  :   

           Support 
           
          None received.

           Opposition 








                                                                 AJR 1
                                                                  Page  3

           
          None received.
           

          Analysis Prepared by  :    Manny Hernandez / INS. / (916) 319-2086