BILL ANALYSIS                                                                                                                                                                                                    



                                                                  AB 1130
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          Date of Hearing:   April 29, 2009

                           ASSEMBLY COMMITTEE ON EDUCATION
                                Julia Brownley, Chair
                   AB 1130 (Solorio) - As Amended:  April 22, 2009
           
          SUBJECT  : Academic performance

           SUMMARY  : States Legislative intent regarding the examination of  
          methods for making and reporting comparisons of school and  
          district academic achievement over time based on a cohort growth  
          measure.  Specifically,  this bill  :  

          1)Makes findings and declarations regarding California's  
            accountability system and the benefits of incorporating a  
            cohort growth measure into that system.

          2)States Legislative intent that the advisory committee advising  
            the Superintendent of Public Instruction (SPI) on matters  
            related to the API, to make recommendations to the SPI and the  
            State Board of Education (SBE) concerning establishment of a  
            methodology for measuring academic achievement by cohort to  
            more accurately measure academic growth for schools and  
            districts by providing the ability to determine:

             a.   High achievement with a growth rate indicating ability  
               to remain proficient or higher.

             b.   Low achievement with a growth rate indicating ability to  
               reach proficiency within a specified timeframe.

             c.   Low achievement with a growth rate indicating  
               significant inability to reach proficiency within a  
               specified timeframe. 

          3)States the intent of the Legislature that the advisory  
            committee take into consideration the pilot study conducted  
            pursuant to provision 10 of Item 6110-113-0890 of Section 2.00  
            of the Budget Act of 2007, federal statute and regulation  
            associated with the Elementary and Secondary Education Act  
            (the current reauthorization of which is known as NCLB)  
            accountability waivers granted by the U.S. Secretary of  
            Education, and measures in use in other states that reflect  
            student, subgroup, school and district growth.









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          4)Requires that any measure of academic performance growth must  
            be in the public domain and meet specified statistical  
            standards, if it is:

             a.   Implemented by the SPI after being approved by the SBE.

             b.   Adopted by the state educational agency for the purposes  
               of federal education programs (i.e., the SBE), as part of  
               any plan or waiver request submitted to the federal  
               government under the Elementary and Secondary Education Act  
               (currently NCLB).

             c.   Adopted by the state as part of any other plan required  
               for receipt or allocation of federal funds.

           EXISTING LAW  :

          1)Requires the SPI, with the approval of the SBE, to develop and  
            implement the API to measure the performance of schools, and  
            to include a variety of indicators, including achievement test  
            results, attendance rates, and graduation rates in that  
            measure.

          2)Requires the SPI to establish an advisory committee to provide  
            advice on all appropriate matters relative to the creation of  
            the API.

          3)Directs the advisory committee by July 1, 2005, to make  
            recommendations to the SPI on the appropriateness and  
            feasibility of a methodology for generating a measurement of  
            academic performance by using unique pupil identifiers and  
            annual academic achievement growth to provide a more accurate  
            measure of a school's growth over time.

           FISCAL EFFECT  : Unknown

           COMMENTS  : The SPI established, pursuant to SB 1 X1 (Alpert),  
          Chapter 3, Statutes of 1999-2000 First Extraordinary Session, an  
          advisory committee to advise the SPI and the SBE on all  
          appropriate matters relative to the creation of the API.  SB 1  
          X1 also requires the SPI, with the approval of the SBE, to  
          develop the API to measure the performance of schools, and to  
          include a variety of indicators in that measure, including, but  
          not limited to, achievement test results, attendance rates, and  
          graduation rates.  Currently only achievement test results are  








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          incorporated into the API, and the API is configured to produce  
          scores measuring a school's static performance at each grade  
          level, in each content area, in each year, at one point in time.  
           In addition the SPI also produces a "Growth API" that compares  
          this static performance from one year to the next by comparing  
          cohort or group scores.  This growth API, however, does not  
          measure true value added for a specific group of students and is  
          not based on the year-to-year information for individual pupils;  
          in other words that measure may only be reflecting the  
          differences in cohorts of pupils that were in one grade level  
          over two different years, rather than actual growth for a fixed  
          set of students over time.

          What is the impact of not being able to compare individual test  
          scores or the aggregate API over time?  Even though individual  
          STAR test scores look the same from one year to the next and  
          allow a relative comparison to other students in the same grade  
          level in a given year, a student's scores are not comparable  
          across grade levels; this means that the student, parents, and  
          teachers can not tell if a student has improved or is achieving  
          at a lower level from one year to the next based on the test  
          scores that they receive.  In short, we don't know whether the  
          520 that a student scores this year is higher, lower, or the  
          same as the 500 that student scored in the previous grade.  The  
          primary impact of this shortcoming is that we are unable to  
          determine whether a specific instructional program designed to  
          maintain a student's academic growth or to accelerate that  
          student's growth is actually doing so.  In the same way, the  
          inability to compare API results from one year to the next,  
          except through the current growth API that effectively measures  
          the results in one grade level for two successive and different  
          cohorts of students, restricts the state's ability to make  
          judgments about how a school's or district's instructional  
          program impacts its students' academic progress over time.  In  
          other words, we are unable to tell whether school reform or  
          school improvement efforts are actually achieving results in  
          terms of academic growth in a school or district; even if we  
          could see growth, we are unable to really measure how great that  
          growth is.  Clearly very large changes from one year to the next  
          would show up as very large changes in individual scores and in  
          the API, but large dramatic changes in one year are not  
          generally the result of school improvement.  The lack of ability  
          to make comparisons over time has also hurt the state in terms  
          of its ability to take advantage of opportunities, provided as  
          part of the federal accountability system defined under No Child  








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          Left Behind, to adopt more flexibility in establishing how  
          schools and districts meet the standard of Adequate Yearly  
          Progress (AYP); this in turn has implications for schools and  
          districts moving into Program Improvement status and eventually  
          being mandated to accept various forms of state intervention,  
          including the possibility of state takeover.

          Why can't we make these comparisons over time?  There are three  
          primary obstacles that face any large-scale assessment and  
          accountability system that attempts to generate measures that  
          allow valid comparisons of achievement over time: cohort  
          instability, content discontinuity, and score incomparability.   
          Cohort instability simply refers to the fact that a school or  
          district won't have the same set of students in one grade this  
          year that it had in the previous grade the year before; in other  
          words, students move in and students move out of schools and  
          districts.  This means that an aggregate measure, like the API,  
          is based on a different set of student scores in each of those  
          two years, and if the students from one year to the next are  
          different, then we can not know whether a change in the API  
          results from the work that the school, district, students and  
          parents have done or simply from the fact that the academic  
          achievement of the two sets of students is different.  While  
          this problem may have an insignificant effect in some schools  
          and districts, California has schools and districts with  
          year-to-year turnover that exceeds 100 percent - meaning that  
          more students have left and come into the school or district  
          over the last year than were enrolled last year.

          Content discontinuity refers to the fact that content upon which  
          scores and measures are based may not create a continuous  
          progression across all grade levels; the simplest examples of  
          this are in the California mathematics standards beginning at  
          grade 8 and in the English language arts standards beginning at  
          grade 9.  The standards above those grade levels were developed  
          to recognize the variety of courses and course sequences that  
          exist across California middle and high schools, so the  
          standards exist more as a grade level block, rather than a  
          sequence of grade levels or content.  In a school one student  
          may take a math sequence of algebra, geometry, second-year  
          algebra and pre-calculus, while another takes pre-algebra,  
          algebra, statistics and no math class; this content  
          discontinuity creates an oranges and apples problem that  
          complicates and possibly invalidates comparisons of aggregate  
          achievement across the grade levels for that school.  This also  








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          creates a problem for comparing individual scores; for example  
          the student taking geometry and then second-year algebra sees  
          their test scores go up from one grade to the next, but if that  
          same student had taken second-year algebra first and then  
          geometry (as sequenced in some schools), that student's scores  
          would have gone down from one year to the next.  In addition,  
          since the individual grade level tests in a given content area  
          can not, in the time allotted for testing, test all of the  
          content standards for that grade level and content area, there  
          is a sampling of content done for inclusion on the tests.  So  
          even if the content standards were completely sequenced across  
          grade levels, the tests drawn from those standards still may not  
          reflect a continuous sequence of content.  Any discontinuity in  
          content creates an oranges and apples problem such that growth  
          in achievement is not reflected in a student's scores across two  
          years - what would be reflected would simply be that student's  
          achievement on two different sets of content.

          Score incomparability refers to how the underlying scores on the  
          tests are created.  Even if content discontinuity were not at  
          issue, in order to compare an individual student's test scores  
          over time the scales on which the test scores are measured at  
          each grade level would have had to have been statistically  
          produced together for all of the grade levels so that there was  
          a progression of possible scores up the grades (one process for  
          producing a score scale that has this progression is referred to  
          as vertical scaling); other statistical mediation approaches  
          might also be used in order to make those scores comparable.  As  
          an example, take two teachers who both grade their students'  
          tests on a scale of 0 to 100; can we say that a 90 on one  
          teacher's test is the same as a 90 on the other?  Clearly not,  
          even if the test content were the same, because we know that  
          teachers grade differently and that their perceptions of what  
          gets a score of 90 may be different. However, if we took all of  
          the tests from both classrooms and examined the results, we  
          could produce a common scale that reflected the difference  
          between the two scores of 90 and every other score in the two  
          classes, and that allowed cross-class comparisons.  This same  
          sort of statistical process would have to be used to allow  
          scores on a series of grade-level tests to be compared across  
          those grade levels.  The scale scores on the tests in the STAR  
          program were developed independent of each other and thus do not  
          validly support this type of cross grade level comparison.  Some  
          would argue that the cut-point or level setting process that is  
          used to establish the STAR performance levels (e.g., basic,  








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          proficient, advanced) mediates this shortcoming in the scale  
          scores, but the judgmental nature of such a standard setting  
          would require extensive statistical validation before it was  
          determined that this process supports comparisons over time.  In  
          addition, the individual scores produced in the STAR program  
          form the basis for both the API and for measuring AYP; if the  
          underlying test scores do not support comparisons over time,  
          then these resulting aggregate measures will suffer from the  
          same problem.

          How can the test scores and aggregate growth measures be made to  
          be comparable over time?  There are many methodologies across a  
          broad spectrum of approaches that could be employed to either  
          eliminate or work around this problem.  On one end of that  
          spectrum might be a full vertical scaling effort. In this  
          approach test questions from one grade level test would be  
          administered to students in adjacent grades and the results  
          would be used to create a common scale across the grade levels.   
          Thus a student's growth could be tracked as the student moves up  
          the common scale that runs from the lowest grade level up  
          through the highest scores at the highest grade level.  This  
          approach is dependent upon the underlying content of the tests  
          being continuous; in other words movement on the common scale  
          has to reflect a progression through the content. It is possible  
          that applying this approach to California might mean a  
          re-examination of the content standards and test content in  
          order to ensure that this content continuity exists.  Since the  
          API is an aggregation of STAR test scores, vertical scaling of  
          the test scores would eliminate most of the problems associated  
          with using the API to compare school and district performance  
          across time.  At the other end of the spectrum might be  
          approaches that rely on statistical procedures to estimate or  
          project what score, on the average, should be achieved in a  
          given year based on the previous year's score or other  
          information.  In this way a student's actual score can be  
          compared to the projected score, and a judgment could be made  
          about whether the student grew at a greater or lesser rate than  
          the average.  This same sort of statistical mediation could be  
          used directly on an aggregate measure, such as the API, without  
          applying the approach to individual test scores.

          There are also many other approaches and methodologies that  
          could be employed to allow comparisons over time.  As with any  
          large-scale statistical procedure, the trade-off among these  
          procedures is generally between the increased validity and  








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          accuracy of the resulting measures and the comparisons that are  
          made using them, and the cost and time involved in implementing  
          that approach.  At the two ends of the spectrum, a vertical  
          scaling process would be the most involved of the approaches,  
          while direct statistical mediations would be less costly and  
          faster.  On the other hand statistical mediation does not solve  
          the underlying problems, but works around them; thus problems  
          such as content discontinuity would still exist and pose a  
          potential threat to the validity of the conclusions and  
          comparisons that we make with these test scores and  
          accountability measures.

          This bill proposes to state Legislative intent to focus the  
          advisory committee on cohort growth, or the growth of aggregate  
          scores for a group of pupils as they move through grade levels.   
          According to the bill's sponsor, this approach would produce  
          estimates or projected aggregate scores that would be used to  
          determine whether actual aggregate growth was occurring at,  
          above or below some desired trajectory.  In other words this  
          bill appears to propose a direct statistical mediation of the  
          aggregate accountability (API) measure based on a cohort  
          analysis.  It is not clear whether this approach would be used  
          to generate individual pupil scores that would be comparable  
          over time.

          According to the author, "AB 1130 is an important step toward a  
          reliable, more accurate and comprehensive measure of academic  
          achievement.  It will also help inform the development of a  
          longitudinal growth model in California that will be used for  
          accountability and policy making purposes at the state,  
          district, and school level."  The author also states that,  
          "Education leaders and researchers have found that including a  
          growth measure in accountability determinations produces a  
          catalyst to data driven decision making from the district to the  
          school site and even the classroom.  In other states,  
          implementation of growth measures that are understandable to  
          teachers, parents and policy makers have fostered partnerships,  
          innovation and collaboration among public education  
          stakeholders."

          There are two concerns with this bill.  The first concern stems  
          from the lack of any specified timeline.  Since there are no  
          deadlines, time references or time-related conditions that bear  
          on the delivery of the recommendations from the advisory  
          committee nor on the implementation of those recommendations by  








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          the SPI, the SBE, or the "state" - all of which are parties that  
          are seen by this bill as being authorized to trigger  
          implementation of the recommendations - there is no guarantee  
          that the recommendations are made by the advisory committee or  
          that those recommendations, if made, are implemented.  The  
          second concern is also associated with implementation of the  
          recommendations.  The bill does not require the advisory  
          committee recommendations to be implemented, but does refer to  
          the recommendations being implemented in any one of three ways:  
          a) by the SPI after being approved by the SBE (current law); b)  
          by the state educational agency designated for the purposes of  
          federal education programs (i.e., the SBE) as part of any plan  
          or waiver request submitted to the federal government under NCLB  
          or subsequent legislation replacing it; or c) by the state as  
          part of any other plan required for receipt or allocation of  
          federal funds.  This ambiguity in specifying how and by whom the  
          changes envisioned in this bill would be implemented, does not  
          match the importance or the magnitude of these changes. Making a  
          change in how we measure progress of both students and schools  
          potentially has significant impacts on individual students,  
          schools and school districts in terms both the state and the  
          federal accountability system, as well as in overall school  
          reform; a change of this significance should have the  
          involvement of the Legislature and the Governor.

          Provision 10 of Item 6110-113-0890 of section 2.00 of the Budget  
          Act of 2007 required the State Board of Education (SBE) and the  
          CDE to expand an existing study, examining academic growth  
          measures using existing longitudinal data of selected grades and  
          content areas, to evaluate multiple approaches for measuring  
          individual pupil annual growth on the state standards; the  
          Budget Act of 2007 also authorized the use of federal funds for  
          this purpose.  The study was required to consider pupil cohorts  
          by selected grade level as well as pupil subgroups.  The study  
          was required to provide: 

          1)Guidance on the utility of studied growth models to meet state  
            and federal accountability requirements.

          2)Guidance on the ease of understanding and communicating the  
            meaning of studied growth measures to parents, educators,  
            policymakers, and pupils.

          3)Potential cost impacts of the studied growth measures.









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          4)Guidance on the use of studied growth measures in evaluating  
            individual pupil longitudinal data after the implementation of  
            the California Longitudinal Pupil Achievement Data System  
            (CALPADS).

          The study, conducted by the Education Testing Service, examined  
          five different approaches to measuring growth, including  
          vertical scaling and different statistical mediations.  The  
          study made recommendations that the state proceed with a  
          regression based approach, consider the development of vertical  
          scales, and not pursue certain specific statistical approaches;  
          the study also provided caveats about the problems involved in  
          these approaches, the possibility of misunderstanding or  
          misinterpretation of the resulting comparisons, and the  
          unintended consequences that could occur with the release of  
          growth information to students and parents.  Problems with  
          misuse and misinterpretation, as well as unintended  
          consequences, present serious threats to the validity of any  
          approach used to produce measures of student or aggregate  
          achievement.  This bill requires that the results of any adopted  
          or implemented growth model be in the public domain, be  
          replicable, and meet specified statistical standards related to  
          the accuracy (i.e., reliability) of the measure; the bill does  
          not establish a similar standard with respect to the validity of  
          the measure, or of the conclusions and comparisons made using  
          that measure.

          Related legislation: This bill is one of four bills that propose  
          changes to the state's accountability system, specifically to  
          the API measure, and that will be heard by the Assembly  
          Education Committee this month.  Those four bills are AB 173  
          (Price), AB 429 (Brownley), AB 1130 (Solorio), and AB 1435 (V.  
          Manuel Perez).  The last page of this analysis provides a  
          side-by-side comparison of key features of these bills.  AB 173  
          (Price), pending in the Assembly Education Committee, states the  
                                                                                        intent of the Legislature to adopt a new measure to replace the  
          API, and requires the CDE to convene a new advisory board to  
          provide general guidance and make recommendations toward that  
          end.  AB 429 (Brownley), pending in the Assembly Education  
          Committee, requires examination of methods for making and  
          reporting valid comparisons of individual academic performance  
          over time and for making potential improvements in the Academic  
          Performance Index (API), so as to be able to measure and report  
          both a student's and a school's academic growth over time.  AB  
          1435 (V. M. Perez), pending in the Assembly Education Committee,  








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          requires the examination of assessment data related to the  
          acquisition of English language by English learners (EL) and of  
          EL proficiency with respect to making potential improvements in  
          the API.

          Previous legislation: AB 2776 (Mullin), held in the Senate  
          Appropriations Committee in 2008, would have required  
          examination of the collection of individual student data, the  
          state's emerging data systems, the possibility of making real  
          comparisons of student performance over time, and the long-term  
          availability of assessment data related to the acquisition of  
          English language by English learners with respect to making  
          potential improvements in the API.  AB 2478 (Huffman), held in  
          the Assembly Appropriations Committee in 2008, makes changes in  
          the issues on which the advisory committee advising the SPI on  
          the API is required to make recommendations.  AB 519 (Mendoza)  
          would have required the incorporation of data regarding the  
          availability in high schools of a course of study that fulfills  
          University of California and California State University  
          admission requirements into the API, and the submission of a  
          plan for incorporating dropout data into the API.  This bill was  
          later amended into different subject matter and author  
          (Committee on the Budget), and enacted as Chapter 757, Statutes  
          of 2008.  SB 219 (Steinberg), Chapter 731, Statutes of 2007,  
          makes changes in the calculation of and in the process for  
          revising the API.  AB 400 (Nunez), vetoed in 2007, would have  
          required the incorporation of additional measures of performance  
          into the API, including the rate at which pupils are offered a  
          course of study that fulfills University of California and  
          California State University admission requirements.  AB 2167  
          (Arambula), Chapter 743, Statutes of 2006, establishes a  
          specific methodology for including graduation rates, as  
          previously required, in the API; also requires the SPI to report  
          annually to the Legislature on graduation and dropout rates in  
          the state.  SB 1284 (Scott), held in the Assembly Appropriations  
          Committee in 2006, would have updated and made technical  
          amendments to statutes that establish the API.  SB 1448  
          (Alpert), Chapter 233, Statutes of 2004, reauthorized the STAR  
          Program.  SB 257 (Alpert), Chapter 782, Statutes of 2003,  
          requires the advisory committee established to advise the SPI on  
          the API to make recommendations to the SPI on a methodology for  
          generating a "gain" score measurement to provide more accurate  
          measure of a school's growth over time.  AB 1295 (Thomson),  
          Chapter 887, Statutes of 2001, makes changes to the API to allow  
          small school districts to receive an API score, receive growth  








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          targets, and performance awards.  SB 1 X1 (Alpert), Chapter 3,  
          Statutes of 1999-2000 First Extraordinary Session, known as the  
          Public Schools Accountability Act (PSAA), authorizes the state's  
          current accountability program, including establishment of the  
          PSAA Advisory Committee and development of the API.  SB 2 X1  
          (O'Connell), Chapter 1, Statutes of 1999-2000, authorized  
          development of the high school exit examination, and established  
          a timeline for requiring passage of that examination in order to  
          qualify for the high school diploma. SB 376 (Alpert), Chapter  
          828, Statutes of 1997, authorized development and implementation  
          of the STAR Program.

           REGISTERED SUPPORT / OPPOSITION  :   

           Support 
           
          EdVoice (sponsor)

           Opposition 
           
          None on file
           
          Analysis Prepared by  :    Gerald Shelton / ED. / (916) 319-2087






























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        Comparisons of Current Law, AB 429, AB 1130, AB 1435, and AB 173 on 
         Key Elements in the Proposals to Improve California Assessment and  
                              Accountability Measures
                                   
          ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 
         |               |  Current  |    AB 173    |    AB 429     |AB 1130 (4/22/09 |   AB 1435   |
         |               |    Law    |   (4/14/09   | (introduced)  |      ver.)      |(introduced) |
         |               |           |    ver.)     |               |                 |             |
         |---------------+-----------+--------------+---------------+-----------------+-------------|
         |Primary        |Developed  |Replace API   |Facilitate     |Facilitate       |Add CELDT    |
         |proposal       |API and    |with new      |growth         |growth           |and EL       |
         |               |advises    |measure       |comparisons    |comparisons      |proficiency  |
         |               |SPI on     |              |               |                 |to API       |
         |               |relevant   |              |               |                 |             |
         |               |matters    |              |               |                 |             |
         |---------------+-----------+--------------+---------------+-----------------+-------------|
         |Improves       |Created    |Both with a   |Both           |Aggregate        |Aggregate    |
         |individual or  |aggregate  |single        |individual     |accountability   |accountabilit|
         |aggregate      |accountabil|measure       |test scores    |measure          |y measure    |
         |measures?      |ity        |              |and aggregate  |                 |             |
         |               |measure    |              |accountability |                 |             |
         |               |           |              |measure        |                 |             |
         |---------------+-----------+--------------+---------------+-----------------+-------------|
         |Who makes      |API        |New advisory  |API advisory   |API advisory     |API advisory |
         |recommendations|advisory   |board with    |committee      |committee        |committee    |
         |?              |committee  |independent   |               |                 |             |
         |               |           |oversight     |               |                 |             |
         |               |           |consultant    |               |                 |             |
         |---------------+-----------+--------------+---------------+-----------------+-------------|
         |Deadline for   |July 1,    |None - not    |July 1, 2011   |None             |July 1, 2010 |
         |recommendations|2005       |implemented   |               |                 |             |
         |?              |           |until the     |               |                 |             |
         |               |           |Legislature   |               |                 |             |
         |               |           |appropriates  |               |                 |             |
         |               |           |federal funds |               |                 |             |
         |               |           |for this      |               |                 |             |
         |               |           |purpose with  |               |                 |             |
         |               |           |DOF approval  |               |                 |             |
         |---------------+-----------+--------------+---------------+-----------------+-------------|










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         |Recommendations|SPI        |Not specified |SPI who        |SPI and SBE      |SPI          |
         | provided to   |           |              |forwards to    |                 |             |
         |whom?          |           |              |SBE,           |                 |             |
         |               |           |              |Legislature,   |                 |             |
         |               |           |              |Dept of        |                 |             |
         |               |           |              |Finance        |                 |             |
         |---------------+-----------+--------------+---------------+-----------------+-------------|
         |How are        |SPI may    |Not specified |Upon           |SPI may          |SPI may      |
         |recommendations|implement  |              |Legislative    |implement with   |implement    |
         | implemented   |with SBE   |              |action that    |SBE approval,    |with SBE     |
         |and when?      |approval   |              |appropriates   |SBE may          |approval     |
         |               |           |              |funds for this |implement as     |             |
         |               |           |              |purpose        |part of NCLB     |             |
         |               |           |              |               |plan, or state   |             |
         |               |           |              |               |may as part of   |             |
         |               |           |              |               |any other        |             |
         |               |           |              |               |federal plan     |             |
         |               |           |              |               |submitted        |             |
          ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------