BILL ANALYSIS Ó Senate Committee on Labor and Industrial Relations William W. Monning, Chair Date of Hearing: June 26, 2013 2013-2014 Regular Session Consultant: Deanna D. Ping Fiscal:Yes Urgency: No Bill No: AB 10 Author: Alejo As Introduced/Amended: June 19, 2013 SUBJECT Minimum wage: annual adjustment KEY ISSUE Should the Legislature approve a series of annual minimum wage increases between 2014 and 2018? ANALYSIS Existing federal law sets the minimum wage at $7.25 an hour. (Fair Labor Standards Act of 1938, 29 U.S.C. Chapter 8) Existing law states that when state and federal laws differ, one must comply with the more restrictive requirement. In California, the minimum wage is $8.00 an hour. (Labor Code §1182.12) This bill increases the state's minimum wage in five separate increments over the next five years. Specifically, this bill : 1) Increases California's minimum wage from $8.00 per hour to not less than $8.25 per hour on January 1, 2014. 2) Increases California's minimum wage from $8.25 per hour to not less than $8.75 per hour on January 1, 2015. 3) Increases California's minimum wage from $8.75 per hour to not less than $9.25 per hour on January 1, 2016. 4) Increases California's minimum wage from $9.25 per hour to not less than $9.50 per hour on January 1, 2017. 5) Increases California's minimum wage from $9.50 per hour to not less than $10.00 per hour on January 1, 2018. COMMENTS 1. Background on Minimum Wage Federally and in Other States In 1938, the Fair Labor Standards Act established a national minimum wage for workers in the United States. On a federal level, the minimum wage has been periodically raised. Beginning in the 1980s and 1990s, the federal minimum wage saw few significant increases which led to more than half of the states to enact higher state-level minimum wages, including California. On January 1, 2013, the minimum wage increased in ten states - Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Missouri, Montana, Ohio, Oregon, Rhode Island, Vermont, and Washington. These states, except for Rhode Island, all adopted an annual adjustment to their minimum wage. California's minimum wage on the other hand, has remained at $8.00 an hour since 2008. 2. Impact of Minimum Wage on Employment: Research Findings Conventional economic theory would predict that a rise in minimum wage leads perfectly competitive employers to reduce their workforce. David Card and Alan Krueger authored a minimum wage study in 1992 entitled "Minimum Wages and Employment: A Case Study of the Fast-Food Industry in New Jersey and Pennsylvania" which evaluated the effects of New Jersey and Pennsylvania's minimum wage on employment. The study analyzed the experiences of 410 fast-food restaurants in New Jersey and Pennsylvania following New Jersey's increase in minimum wage. The authors also compared employment, wages, and prices at stores before and after the wage increase in both states as well. Card and Krueger found no evidence that the rise in New Jersey's minimum wage reduced employment at fast-food restaurants in the state. One economic study published in 2010 by Arindrajit Dube, T. William Lester, and Michael Reich entitled, "Minimum Wage Hearing Date: June 26, 2013 AB 10 Consultant: Deanna D. Ping Page 2 Senate Committee on Labor and Industrial Relations Effects Across State Borders: Estimates Using Contiguous Counties," also evaluated whether minimum wages had any impact on earnings and employment. The study paired contiguous counties across state-lines with differential minimum wages and examined differences between the pairs in terms of the number of jobs and pay for workers over a 16 year span (1990-2006), primarily focusing on workers in the restaurant industry. The authors of the study concluded that increasing the minimum wage resulted in strong earnings effects with no effect on employment. The study also explained that researchers have sometimes found a negative effect on jobs from minimum wage increases because previous studies have failed to take into account regional differences in states' economies. Such a failure to account for these factors has led some researchers to mistakenly attribute the low growth in employment in some states to higher minimum wages instead of the real cause, which could be deindustrialization, technological change, or other causes unrelated to the increased minimum wage. 3. Need for this bill? According to the author, AB 10 will address California's historic income gap, which is one of the largest in the nation, by increasing the state minimum wage over a five year period from $8.00 to $10.00. The current federal minimum wage is $7.25 and in California the minimum wage is $8.00. Over the last 30 years Congress has increased the minimum wage 3 times while California has not had a minimum wage increase since 2008. If the federal minimum wage had kept up with inflation over the past 40 years it would be around $10.69. According to a national poll conducted by Lake Research Partners, nearly three out of four likely voters (73%) in the U.S. support increasing the minimum wage to $10 per hour and indexing it to inflation. In its original version, AB 10 would have indexed the minimum wage on an annual basis according to the rate of inflation following the set step increases described - this was amended out of the bill before it reached the Senate Labor Committee hearing. Hearing Date: June 26, 2013 AB 10 Consultant: Deanna D. Ping Page 3 Senate Committee on Labor and Industrial Relations 4. Proponent Arguments : Supporters argue that this bill will strengthen and depoliticize California's minimum wage by providing a modest increase to millions of struggling Californians. According to proponents, over recent decades workers at the bottom of the wage scale have been struggled while the real value of their earnings has collapsed. In support of this, proponents cite that the California Budget Project has calculated that between 1968 and 2008, the purchasing power of California's minimum wage fell by 24.8%. Proponents also bring attention to the Public Policy Institute of California's findings that California is experiencing the largest income gap in at least 30 years which is exacerbated by the fact that California's current minimum wage, when adjusted for inflation, is less than the minimum wage workers earned in 1979. Further, proponents believe the bill will kick start California's lagging economy over the next five years with predictable increases to the minimum wage. Just the $.25 wage increase in 2014, according to proponents, is estimated to provide two million Californians an additional $520 annually and a billion additional dollars. Proponents argue that raising the minimum wage would put more money in the pockets of workers struggling to provide for their families, and when workers have more money to spend, they spent it - generating more consumer spending. Proponents believe the current method of determining California's minimum wage rate is unconscionable because workers are forced to watch the minimum wage languish year after year until legislators decided to act. Lastly, proponents argue that AB 10 will address the current historic income gap, help California's economy bounce back, and bring the citizens of California back to prosperity. 5. Opponent Arguments : Opponents argue that AB 10 is unprecedented as it locks in an automatic 25% increase in the minimum wage over the next five years, regardless of any other economic factors or costs that employers may face, and exceeds any historical average rate of Hearing Date: June 26, 2013 AB 10 Consultant: Deanna D. Ping Page 4 Senate Committee on Labor and Industrial Relations inflation (an average of 2.5% rate a year for California). They contend that given the unpredictability of the economy, the duration and amount of the minimum wage increase fails to take into consideration other economic factors of cumulative costs to which employers may be subjected. Opponents state that California's economic recovery is still in the infancy stage and that an increase in the minimum wage in 2014 will negatively impact any economic recovery by either limiting available jobs, or worse, creating further job loss. Opponents argue that although the initial $0.25 increase may seem minimal, combined with the unknown increased costs associated with the implementation of the Affordable Care Act, the tax increases approved under Proposition 30, and the partial reduction in federal tax credit in 2014, could force a struggling employer to reduce their costs in other areas, such as labor, or pass such increased costs onto the consumers through higher prices. Lastly, opponents bring attention to a study conducted by the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) which found that depending upon the rate of inflation in future years, enacting this bill could result in 46,000 to 68,000 lost jobs in California by 2023, and a reduction in real output somewhere between $4.7-$5.7 billion. Opponents note that the NFIB study also claims that the increase in minimum wage might cause employees currently earning above the minimum wage to put pressure on their employer for a raise in order to maintain the wage premium between them and the lowest-earning individuals in the economy, causing this bill to have an emulation effect. 6. Prior Legislation : AB 1439 (Alejo) of 2012 would have increased the minimum wage to $8.50 per hour and provided for the automatic adjustment of the wage each year by the rate of inflation as measured by the California Consumer Price Index for all Urban Consumers. The bill was held in the Assembly Appropriations Committee. AB 196 (Alejo) of 2011 would have increased the minimum wage to $8.50 per hour and provided for the automatic adjustment of Hearing Date: June 26, 2013 AB 10 Consultant: Deanna D. Ping Page 5 Senate Committee on Labor and Industrial Relations the wage each year by the rate of inflation as measured by the California Consumer Price Index for all Urban Consumers. The bill was held in the Assembly Labor and Employment Committee. AB 1835 (Lieber), Chapter 230, Statutes of 2006, increased the minimum wage to $7.50 per hour effective January 1, 2007, and to $8.00 per hour, effective January 1, 2008. AB 1844 (Chavez) of 2006 would have increased the state minimum wage in 2006 of $6.75 per hour to $7.25 per hour as of July 1, 2007, and to $7.75 as of July 1, 2008, and provided for the automatic adjustment of the minimum wage each year by the rate of inflation as measured by the California Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers, beginning January 1, 2009. This bill was held in the Assembly Appropriation Committee. AB 48 (Lieber) of 2005 would have increased the minimum wage to $7.25 per hour effective on and after July 1, 2006, and to $7.75 per hour effective on and after July 1, 2007, and provided for the automatic adjustment of the minimum wage on January 1 of each year thereafter, beginning in 2008, by multiplying the minimum wage by the previous year's rate of inflation as measured by the California Consumer Price Index. AB 48 was vetoed by the Governor. SUPPORT American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees, AFL-CIO California Applicants' Attorneys Association California Catholic Conference of Bishops California Communities United Institute California Conference Board of the Amalgamated Transit Union California Conference of Machinists California Employment Lawyers Association California Federation of Teachers, AFL-CIO California Immigrant Policy Center California Labor Federation, AFL-CIO California National Organization for Women California Nurses Association Hearing Date: June 26, 2013 AB 10 Consultant: Deanna D. Ping Page 6 Senate Committee on Labor and Industrial Relations California Public Defenders Association California Rural Legal Assistance Foundation California State Association of Electrical Workers California State Pipe Trades Council California Teamsters, Public Affairs Council City of Berkeley City of Lathrop Congress of California Seniors Engineers and Scientists of California Glendale City Employees Association International Longshore and Warehouse Union Laborers' International Union of North America Locals 777 and 792 Legal Aid Association of California Mexican American Legal Defense and Educational Fund National Association of Social Workers - California Chapter Organization of SMUD Employees Peace & Freedom Part of California Professional & Technical Engineers, Local 21 Restaurant Opportunities Center of Los Angeles San Bernardino Public Employees Association San Diego Court Employees Association San Luis Obispo County Employees Association San Mateo County Central Labor Council, AFL-CIO Santa Rosa City Employees Association Service Employees International Union Services, Immigrant Rights and Education Network St. Anthony Foundation UNITE HERE United Auto Workers, Local 5810 United Domestic Workers of America, AFSCME Local 3930 United Food and Commercial Workers Union, Western States Council Utility Workers Union of America, Local 132 Western Center on Law and Poverty Western States Council of Sheet Metal Workers OPPOSITION Acclamation Insurance Management Services Air Conditioning Trade Association Allied Managed Care Hearing Date: June 26, 2013 AB 10 Consultant: Deanna D. Ping Page 7 Senate Committee on Labor and Industrial Relations Brea Chamber of Commerce California Agricultural Aircraft Association California Association of Collectors California Association for Health Services at Home California Association of Health Facilities California Association of Nurseries and Garden Centers California Association of Wheat Growers California Association of Winegrape Growers California Bean Shippers Association California Chamber of Commerce California Citrus Mutual California Cherry Export Association California Cotton Ginners Association California Cotton Growers Association California Dairies, Inc. California Farm Bureau Federation California Framing Contractors Association California Grain and Feed Association California Grape & Tree Fruit League California Grocers Association California Hotel and Lodging Association California Independent Grocers Association California League of Food Processors California Lodging Industry Association California Manufacturers and Technology Association California Pear Growers Association California Professional Association of Specialty Contractors California Restaurant Association California Retailers Association California Seed Association California Spa & Pool Industry Education Council California State Floral Association California Tomato Growers Association California Warehouse Association Camarillo Chamber of Commerce Culver City Chamber of Commerce Far West Equipment Dealers Association Fullerton Chamber of Commerce Gilroy Chamber of Commerce Greater Conejo Valley Chamber of Commerce Greater Fresno Area Chamber of Commerce Grater San Fernando Valley Chamber of Commerce Hearing Date: June 26, 2013 AB 10 Consultant: Deanna D. Ping Page 8 Senate Committee on Labor and Industrial Relations National Federation of Independent Business Orange County Business Council Oxnard Chamber of Commerce Pacific Egg and Poultry Association Rancho Cordova Chamber of Commerce Redondo Beach Chamber of Commerce San Gabriel Valley Regional Chamber of Commerce Santa Clara Chamber of Commerce and Convention-Visitors Bureau Simi Valley Chamber of Commerce Southwest California Legislative Council The Tulare Chamber of Commerce Valley Industry and Commerce Association Western Agricultural Processors Association Western Electrical Contractors Association Western Growers Association Hearing Date: June 26, 2013 AB 10 Consultant: Deanna D. Ping Page 9 Senate Committee on Labor and Industrial Relations