BILL ANALYSIS Ó
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| SENATE COMMITTEE ON NATURAL RESOURCES AND WATER |
| Senator Fran Pavley, Chair |
| 2013-2014 Regular Session |
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BILL NO: SB 135 HEARING DATE: April 23, 2013
AUTHOR: Padilla URGENCY: No
VERSION: April 2, 2013 CONSULTANT: Leonardo Scherer
Alves
DUAL REFERRAL: No FISCAL: Yes
SUBJECT: Earthquake early warning system.
BACKGROUND AND EXISTING LAW
The California Geological Survey is located in the Department of
Conservation and its mission is to provide scientific products
and services about the state's geology, seismology and mineral
resources that affect the health, safety, and business interests
of the people of California.
California is the second most seismically active state in the
country. The Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast
(UCERF) forecasts a 99.7% chance of a magnitude 6.7 or larger
earthquake in the state during the next 30 years. The chance of
an even greater quake of magnitude 7.5 or greater is 46%, over
the same period of time. California's last significant
earthquake was the 1994 Northridge event which caused tremendous
damage, including 57 fatalities.
Some places, known for high seismic activity such as Japan,
Turkey, Mexico, and Taiwan already have early warning systems.
Japan is the only country with a nationwide public warning
system, and the others have local systems. Other places, such as
China, are currently developing similar systems. Unfortunately
these systems seem to only be implemented after a killer
earthquake strikes. All these detection systems are based upon
the finding that the first waves emanating from the epicenter of
the earthquake, primary waves (P-waves), cause less damage but
travel faster than the slower and damage-causing secondary waves
(S-waves). Therefore, through taking advantage of this feature
in conjunction with a large network of seismic sensors, a
warning signal could be sent before the arrival of the damaging
S-waves.
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PROPOSED LAW
This bill would require the Office of Emergency Services, in
collaboration with the California Institute of Technology
(Caltech), the California Geological Survey, the University of
California Berkeley, the United States Geological Survey, and
others, to develop a comprehensive statewide earthquake early
warning system in California.
ARGUMENTS IN SUPPORT
According to the author "while earthquakes cannot be predicated
or prevented, using advanced science and technology we can
detect seismic activity to provide an advanced warning, save
lives and help mitigate damage."
"California currently has the California Integrated Seismic
Network (CISN), which is a demonstration earthquake early
warning system. A fully developed system would process data
from an array of sensors throughout the state. The system would
effectively detect the strength and the progression of
earthquakes, alert the public within seconds and provide up to
60 seconds advanced warning before potentially damaging ground
shaking is felt."
"Earthquake early warning systems not only alert the public,
they also speed the response of police, fire and other safety
personnel by quickly identifying areas hardest hit by the
quake."
COMMENTS
This bill is a work-in-progress . Should the bill be
substantially amended in the future and should it pass this
committee, the committee may wish to re-hear the bill.
Benefits of an early warning system (and limitations).
Early warning system can be used in a variety for examples such
as slowing or stopping trains, warning airplane pilots and avoid
take-offs and landings, and closing bridges. This system also
could be used in industry and businesses to slow or stop
production lines, moving employees to safe areas, stopping
potentially dangerous procedures and securing dangerous areas.
In hospital such system would prevent a series of accidents
during operations and surgeries. It has been shown that a
warning signal of as little as 30 seconds is enough to activate
many automatic response systems and reduce significantly the
number of casualties and financial losses caused by the tremors.
The "big one" over the San Andreas fault possibly will give Los
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Angeles 45 seconds warning - which could be critical in
minimizing damages.
However, earthquakes cannot be predicted; therefore, by
definition, there will be always blind zones. With technology
advancement the size of the blind zone will continue to decrease
but the people located immediately above the epicenter will
always feel the tremors just seconds after it starts.
Individuals further away from the epicenter will have more time
to prepare. Further, a decision must be made to determine what
magnitude that would trigger sending a message to the general
public. Small tremors would create unnecessary chaos and using
such system for minor quakes should be minimized.
California's current system .
Currently California has 300 sensors in place but hundreds more
are needed, this will aid the detections of the early signs of a
rupture and the collected data also will allow operators to
determine the precise location and severity of the quake.
California can use the current seismic network making the
development of a robust, fully operational early warning system
in California to cost only a fraction of the one in Japan. The
author's office estimates the cost to be $16 million a year for
a period of 5 years.
Other countries' experience
Japan spent $600 million dollars to build a system from the
ground up. Japan's early warning system was developed after the
1995 Kobe earthquake that killed over 6,400 people. Mexico
developed its system after the 1985 Mexico City earthquake; this
8.1 magnitude earthquake killed at least 10,000 people.
The Japanese success story springs from the partnership of
public and private early warning systems. Japan Railways, a
nationwide railway network, has had its own system for over 20
years. Although the current bill allows for participation by the
private sector, it may be beneficial to include the intent to
create these private and public sector partnerships explicitly.
Related legislation
AB 928 (Blakeslee) 2009-10 Session would have required the
High-Speed Rail Authority to develop an earthquake early warning
system and coordinate development of that system with public
partners in order to protect infrastructure and public safety.
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(Held in Assembly policy committee at author's request)
AB 1374 (Liu) 2005-06 Session. would have extended the
assessment that supports the
Seismic Safety Commission through July 1, 2013. (Vetoed -
Governor's message stated, "Since we are reviewing how best to
use the expertise the Commission provides, it is premature to
extend the assessment that supports the Commission through
2013.")
SB 1049 (Budget Committee), Chapter 741, Statutes 2003 .
established the authority through July 1, 2007 that Seismic
Safety Account funds may be used to fund activities of the
Seismic Safety Commission and related activities. This was a
shift from the use of a mixture of money from the General Fund,
seismic bond funds and reimbursement which had been used prior
to 2003.
SUPPORT
California Institute of Technology
City of Bell Gardens
City of Coalinga
City of Culver City
City of Los Angeles
City of Rancho Cordova
City of South El Monte
City of West Hollywood
County of San Mateo
Mayor Bill Bogaard of the City of Pasadena
Mayor Rob Schroder of the City of Martinez
Town of Los Altos Hills
University of California
University of California, Berkeley
OPPOSITION
None Received
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