BILL ANALYSIS Ó
Senate Appropriations Committee Fiscal Summary
Senator Kevin de León, Chair
SB 135 (Padilla) - Early Earthquake Warning System.
Amended: April 2, 2013 Policy Vote: GO 11-0; NRW 9-0
Urgency: No Mandate: No
Hearing Date: May 23, 2013 Consultant: Mark McKenzie
SUSPENSE FILE. AS PROPOSED TO BE AMENDED.
Bill Summary: SB 135 would require the Office of Emergency
Services (OES), in collaboration with specified state and
federal entities, to establish an early earthquake warning
system in California.
Fiscal Impact:
Initial estimated costs of approximately $80 million over
five years (likely $20-$25 million in the first year, and
$12-$15 million for the remaining four years) to establish a
statewide early earthquake warning system (federal, local,
private). This assumes an expansion of the current
California Integrated Seismic Network.
Initial OES staffing costs of $399,000 annually (2 Research
Specialist II positions) to support the development of the
system.
Unknown ongoing costs to operate and maintain the system
(General Fund).
Background: California is the second most seismically active
state in the country, behind Alaska. The Uniform California
Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF) forecasts a 99.7% chance of
a magnitude 6.7 or larger earthquake in the state during the
next 30 years. Some countries that experience high seismic
activity have developed early earthquake warning (EEW) systems.
Currently, Japan is the only country with a nationwide system,
while Turkey, Mexico, Taiwan, and others have implemented local
systems. Generally, these detection systems are based upon the
finding that the first waves emanating from the epicenter of the
earthquake, primary waves (P-waves), cause less damage but
travel faster than the slower and damage-causing secondary waves
(S-waves). This "single-station" approach can be used in
conjunction with a "network approach" that combines signals from
a regional seismic network of sensors that is capable of
characterizing large and complex earthquakes as they evolve.
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EEW systems harness the sensor signals and provide a warning to
the public and active users of the system before a shaking
event. Depending on the distance from the epicenter, these
systems can provide advanced warning time ranging from seconds
to minutes, outside a 20-mile "blind zone" near an epicenter.
This would allow for emergency shutdowns of critical
infrastructure, such as trains, utilities, and industrial
processes, and allow the general public to take protective
action.
The California Geological Survey (CGS), within the Department of
Conservation, currently operates over 5,000 seismic instruments
that monitor ground movement around the state through the Strong
Motion Instrumentation Program (SMIP). This is the largest
portion of the broader California Integrated Seismic Network
(CISN), which is comprised of 1,900 monitoring sites operated in
partnership with the U.S. Geological Survey, Caltech, and the UC
Berkeley Seismological Lab. Information from these instruments
is used for research and planning purposes, and to produce
"Shakemaps," which inform emergency responders where the worst
shaking occurred within minutes of an earthquake. The U.S.
Geological Survey is currently operating a small warning system
pilot program based on this instrumentation network, and a
report on the program is due within the next year. Additional
federal grants have recently been awarded to support the
development of a local earthquake early warning system for the
Los Angeles and Long Beach areas.
Proposed Law: SB 135 would require the Office of Emergency
Services (OES), in collaboration with the California Institute
of Technology (Caltech), the California Geological Survey, the
University of California Berkeley, the United States Geological
Survey, and others, to establish an early earthquake warning
system in California.
Staff Comments: The SMIP, as well as the Seismic Hazard Mapping
Program, is supported by residential construction fees of $10
per $100,000 of value and commercial building permit fees of $21
per $100,000 of value. These fees, which are deposited in the
Strong Motion Instrumentation and Seismic Hazards Mapping Fund,
have not been raised since 1990. Since the 2000-01 fiscal year,
revenues from the fees have ranged from $3.5 to $8.8 million,
depending on building and construction activity. Staff notes
that fee revenues have not met current program costs since the
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2006-07 fiscal year, falling nearly $1 million short in fiscal
year 2011-12, and nearly $750,000 short 2012-13. The program's
current funding source would not support the expansion of staff
and instrumentation required by an earthquake early warning
system. As such, General Fund support would be required to
develop and implement an EEW system.
Staff notes that the bill lacks specificity regarding the
establishment of an EEW in California, but the logical
assumption would be that a robust system would be based upon the
existing CGS network of seismic instrumentation. The findings
and declarations of the bill include an inference that a fully
developed EEW could be achieved by building upon the current
CISN. The establishment of such as system would require the
development of technology to provide warnings to the public,
educational outreach related to the warnings, and investments in
the seismic infrastructure to improve the rapid detection of
earthquakes. According to CISN documents, this would entail
additional sensor sites, upgraded data communications, algorithm
development, new software systems, and robustness features that
would be required before an EEW could be fully operational.
These documents indicate that the cost of a robust, fully
operational EEW-capable CISN system in California would be
approximately $80 million over five years, not including costs
associated with user implementation, or ongoing operations and
maintenance. Department staff is unable to provide an estimate
at this time due to lack of prescribed detail in the bill. OES
indicates that it would require the addition of two full-time
Research Specialist II positions, at an annual cost of $399,000,
to support the development of the system.
PROPOSED AMENDMENTS would specify features to be included in the
EEW, require OES to identify funding for the system through
single or multiple sources of revenue, including federal funds,
revenue bonds, local funds, and private grants, and sunset the
bill's provisions on January 1, 2016 if funding is not
identified by that date.