BILL ANALYSIS                                                                                                                                                                                                    Ó



                                                                            



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                                    THIRD READING


          Bill No:  SB 135
          Author:   Padilla (D), et al.
          Amended:  5/24/13
          Vote:     21

           
           SENATE GOVERNMENTAL ORGANIZATION COMMITTEE  :  11-0, 4/9/13
          AYES:  Wright, Nielsen, Berryhill, Calderon, Cannella, Correa,  
            De León, Galgiani, Hernandez, Lieu, Padilla

           SENATE NATURAL RESOURCES AND WATER COMMITTEE  :  9-0, 4/23/13
          AYES:  Pavley, Cannella, Evans, Fuller, Hueso, Jackson, Lara,  
            Monning, Wolk

           SENATE APPROPRIATIONS COMMITTEE  :  7-0, 5/23/13
          AYES:  De León, Walters, Gaines, Hill, Lara, Padilla, Steinberg


           SUBJECT  :    Earthquake early warning system

           SOURCE  :     Author


           DIGEST  :    This bill makes various findings and declarations  
          relative to the nature of earthquakes and early warning  
          technology and requires the Office of Emergency Services (OES),  
          in collaboration with the California Institute of Technology  
          (Caltech), the California Geological Survey (CGS), the  
          University of California (UC), the U.S. Geological Survey  
          (USGS), and others, to develop a comprehensive statewide  
          earthquake early warning (EEW) system in California and requires  
          the system to include certain features, including the  
          installation of field sensors; and makes these provisions  
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          contingent upon OES identifying funding sources for the system,  
          as provided.  If no funding sources are identified by January 1,  
          2016, these provisions are repealed. 

           ANALYSIS  :    

          Existing law:

           1. Provides for the California Emergency Services Act requiring  
             the Director of OES to coordinate the emergency activities of  
             all state agencies during an emergency.

           2. Provides for the establishment of a Standardized Emergency  
             Management System for use by all emergency response agencies.

           3. Provides that OES shall coordinate the activities of all  
             state agencies relating to preparation and implementation of  
             the State Emergency Plan, the response efforts of state and  
             local agencies and the integration of federal resources into  
             state and local response and recovery operations.

           4. Establishes the CGS which provides scientific products and  
             services about the state's geology, seismology and mineral  
             resources including their related hazards, which affect the  
             health, safety, and business interests of the people of  
             California.  The CGS creates and maintains the California  
             Integrated Seismic Network (CISN) "ShakeMaps." 

           5. Requires that safety elements of local general plans protect  
             communities from any unreasonable risks associated with the  
             effects of, amongst others, earthquakes and tsunamis, and  
             include mapping of known seismic and other geological  
             hazards. 

           6. Provides for the 20-member Alfred E. Alquist Seismic Safety  
             Commission which was established with the passage of the  
             Seismic Safety Commission Act of 1975, in response to the  
             devastation following the Sylmar Earthquake of 1971, after an  
             ad hoc committee recognized the need for a continuing effort  
             to build the state's infrastructure to resist future  
             earthquakes.  The Commission is charged with investigating  
             earthquakes, advising the Governor, Legislature and state and  
             local government on ways to reduce earthquake risk and  
             ensuring a coordinated framework for establishing earthquake  

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             safety policies and programs in California.  

          This bill:

          1. Makes legislative findings and declarations relating to  
             California seismic activity/forecast, the Pacific Ring of  
             Fire, and EEW systems.

          2. Requires OES, in collaboration with Caltech, UC, USGS, and  
             CGS to develop a comprehensive statewide EEW system in  
             California that includes, but is not limited to, (a)  
             installation of field sensors, (b) improvement of field  
             telemetry, (c) construction and testing of central processing  
             and notification centers, (d) establishment of warning  
             notification distribution paths to the public, and (e)  
             integration of earthquake early warning education with  
             general earthquake preparedness efforts.

          3. Requires OES to identify funding for the system through  
             single or multiple sources of revenue, including, but not  
             limited to, federal funds, funds from revenue bonds, local  
             funds, and private grants.

          4. Provides that #2 above shall not become operative until OES  
             identifies funding pursuant to #3 above.

          5. Provides that if funding is not identified, as specified, by  
             January 1, 2016, the provisions of the bill are repealed  
             unless a later enacted statute, that is enacted before  
             January 1, 2016, deletes or extends that date.

          6. Requires OES to file with the Secretary of State its  
             determination that funding was not identified, as specified.

           Background
          
           EEW system  .  When an earthquake occurs, seismic waves radiate  
          from the epicenter like waves on a pond - it is these waves we  
          feel as earthquake shaking which causes damage to structures.   
          The technology exists to detect moderate to large earthquakes so  
          quickly that a warning can be sent to locations outside the area  
          where the earthquake begins before these destructive waves  
          arrive.  The amount of warning time at a particular location  
          depends on the distance from the earthquake epicenter.   

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          Locations very close to the earthquake epicenter will receive  
          relatively little or no warning whereas locations far removed  
          from the earthquake epicenter would receive more warning time  
          but may not experience damaging shaking.  For those locations in  
          between, the warning time could range from seconds to minutes. 

          Currently, there are two approaches to EEW - the "single  
          station" (or on-site) approach and the "network" approach.  In  
          the single-station approach, a single sensor detects the arrival  
          of the faster but weaker seismic wave (P-wave) and warns before  
          the arrival of the slower, more destructive seismic wave  
          (S-wave).  This approach is relatively simple, but some would  
          argue it is less accurate and more prone to false alerts  
          compared to the network approach.

          The network approach utilizes many seismic sensors that are  
          distributed across a wide area where earthquakes are likely to  
          occur.  This network of sensors sends data to a central site  
          where ground motion signals are analyzed, earthquakes are  
          detected and warnings are issued.  The network approach is  
          considered to be slower, but more reliable than the on-site  
          approach.  This is because it uses information from many  
          stations to confirm that the ground motion detected is actually  
          from an earthquake and not from some other source of vibration.

           CISN  .  The CISN, a collaborative effort between Caltech, UC  
          Berkeley, USGS, California Emergency Management Agency (CalEMA)  
          and CGS, currently operates a network of hundreds of seismic  
          sensors in California to monitor and notify earthquake activity  
          in this State.  The CISN is primarily funded by USGS, CalEMA,  
          and CGS.   The CISN generates and distributes ShakeMaps and  
          other products for emergency response, post-earthquake recovery,  
          earthquake engineering, and seismological research.

           Ring of Fire  .  California is in the heart of the Pacific Ring of  
          Fire which includes the very active San Andreas Fault zone which  
          is more than 800 miles long and extends to depths of at least 10  
          miles within the Earth.  Geological studies show that over the  
          past 1,400 to 1,500 years large earthquakes have occurred at  
          about 150-year intervals on the southern San Andreas Fault - the  
          last such large quake in 1857.

          According to a 2008 analysis from the Uniform California  
          Earthquake Rupture Forecast, California has a 99.7% chance of  

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          having a 6.7 magnitude earthquake and a 94% likelihood of a 7.0  
          magnitude earthquake during the next 30 years.  In addition, the  
          USGS released a report that showed a 7.8 magnitude earthquake on  
          the southern Andreas Fault would cause 2,000 deaths and $200  
          billion in damage, with severe and long lasting disruption. 

          Early warning systems are in place, or in the works, in a number  
          of earthquake prone nations including Japan, Taiwan, Mexico,  
          Turkey, Italy, China, and Romania.  Japan turned on the first  
          publicly available nationwide EEW system in 2007, and on March  
          11, 2011, it had its first true test during the 9.0 magnitude  
          Tohoku earthquake off the coast of Sendai.  Earthquake warnings  
          were automatically broadcast on television and radio and 52  
          million people received their warning via smartphones - millions  
          more downloaded the early warning app after the quake to receive  
          warnings in advance of large aftershocks.

           FISCAL EFFECT  :    Appropriation:  No   Fiscal Com.:  Yes    
          Local:  No

          According to the Senate Appropriations Committee:

           Initial estimated costs of approximately $80 million over five  
            years (likely $20-$25 million in the first year, and $12-$15  
            million for the remaining four years) to establish a statewide  
            EEW system (federal/local/private).  This assumes an expansion  
            of the current CISN, rather than building a warning system  
            from the ground up. 

           Initial OES staffing costs of $399,000 annually (two Research  
            Specialist II positions) to support the development of the  
            system. 

           Unknown, ongoing costs to operate and maintain the system  
            (General Fund).

          Strong Motion Instrumentation Program, as well as the Seismic  
          Hazard Mapping Program, is supported by residential construction  
          fees of $10 per $100,000 of value and commercial building permit  
          fees of $21 per $100,000 of value.  These fees, which are  
          deposited in the Strong Motion Instrumentation and Seismic  
          Hazards Mapping Fund, have not been raised since 1990.  Since  
          the 2000-01 fiscal year, revenues from the fees have ranged from  
          $3.5 to $8.8 million, depending on building and construction  

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          activity.  Fee revenues have not met current program costs since  
          the 2006-07 fiscal year, falling nearly $1 million short in  
          fiscal year 2011-12, and nearly $750,000 short in 2012-13.  The  
          program's current funding source would not support the expansion  
          of staff and instrumentation required by an EEW system.  As  
          such, General Fund support would be required to develop and  
          implement an EEW system.

           SUPPORT  :   (Verified  5/24/13)

          California Institute of Technology
          Cities of Baldwin Park, Bell Gardens, Beverly Hills, Coalinga,  
          Encinitas, Grover 
               Beach, Irvine, Los Angeles, Rancho Cordova, South El Monte,  
          Watsonville, 
               and Winters
          City of Chula Vista, Councilman Rudy Ramirez
          City of Culver City, Mayor Andrew Weissman 
          City of Martinez, Mayor Rob Schroder
          City of Pasadena, Mayor Bill Bogaard
          City of Walnut Creek, Mayor Cindy Silva
          City of West Hollywood, Mayor Abbe Land
          County of San Mateo
          Metropolitan Water District of California
          Town of Los Altos Hills
          University of California
          University of California, Berkeley

           OPPOSITION  :    (Verified  5/24/13)

          Department of Finance

           ARGUMENTS IN SUPPORT  :    According to the author, "while  
          earthquakes cannot be predicated or prevented, using advanced  
          science and technology we can detect seismic activity to provide  
          an advanced warning, save lives and help mitigate damage.   
          California currently has the California Integrated Seismic  
          Network (CISN), which is a demonstration earthquake early  
          warning system.  A fully developed system would process data  
          from an array of sensors throughout the state.  The system would  
          effectively detect the strength and the progression of  
          earthquakes, alert the public within seconds and provide up to  
          60 seconds advanced warning before potentially damaging ground  
          shaking is felt.  Earthquake early warning systems not only  

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          alert the public, they also speed the response of police, fire  
          and other safety personnel by quickly identifying areas hardest  
          hit by the quake."

           ARGUMENTS IN OPPOSITION  :    The Department of Finance states  
          that this bill will result in additional General Fund costs that  
          are not included in the Administration's current fiscal plan.  
           
          MW:d  5/24/13   Senate Floor Analyses 

                           SUPPORT/OPPOSITION:  SEE ABOVE

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