BILL ANALYSIS                                                                                                                                                                                                    







             SENATE COMMITTEE ON Public Safety
                   Senator John Vasconcellos, Chair   S
                      1999-2000 Regular Session       B

                                                      8
                                                      7
                                                      3
 (Vasconcellos)                                       
As Introduced February 25, 1999
Hearing date: 
 Code
JM:jm


               STUDY OF THE "THREE STRIKES" LAW
                               
                          HISTORY

Source:   Author

Prior Legislation: SB 2048 (Vasconcellos) 1998 - vetoed by  
Governor (as study bill)
            SB 1317 (Lee) 1997 - failed passage on Senate  
Floor
            SB 2089 (Marks) 1995 - failed passage on Senate  
Floor 
            AB 1444 (Kuehl) 1996 - failed passage in  
Assembly Public Safety
            Proposition 184, November 1994 - Enacted
            AB 971 (Jones/Costa) Chapter 12, Statutes of  
1994

Support: ACLU; California Public Defenders Association;  
         California Attorneys for Criminal Justice;  
         California NORML; Lutheran Office of Public  
         Policy; Families to Amend California's Three  
         Strikes; several individuals

Opposition:  None known





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                                    KEY ISSUE
  
SHOULD THE LEGISLATURE COMMISSION AN OBJECTIVE STUDY BY THE LEGISLATIVE  
ANALYST TO ASSESS THE EFFECTS AND COST OF THE "THREE STRIKES" LAW?


                              

                          PURPOSE

The purpose of this bill is to require a study by the  
Legislative Analyst of the effects and costs of the "Three  
Strikes" law. 

  Existing law  provides that a defendant, who is convicted of  
  any  current felony, with prior convictions of two or more  
"violent" or "serious" felonies, must receive a life  
sentence with a minimum term of 25 years.  (Penal Code  
section 667(a) and (d)(2)(i); section 1170.12(a) and  
(c)(2)(A); and section 1192.7)<1>

  Existing law  further provides that where a defendant is  
convicted of  any  felony with a prior conviction for a  
single serious or violent felony, the sentence imposed must  
be twice the term otherwise provided as punishment.  (Penal  
Code section 667(d)(1) and section 1170.12(c)(1))

  Existing law  further provides that affected defendants may  
not receive probation, there is no limitation on the  
------------------------------
<1> The minimum term for any defendant with two prior  
serious or violent offenses must be at least 25 years.  In  
many cases, multiple terms of 25 years to life may be  
imposed - one for each count (separately charged offense)  
which does not arise from the same operative facts in the  
current case.  (Penal Code section 667(c)(6))  According to  
a complex formula, in a rare case, a different minimum term  
may be imposed if it would result in a longer sentence than  
25 years.  (Penal Code section 667(d)(2)(A)(i-iii))



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aggregate term, conduct credits are limited to 20% of the  
term (instead of the usual 50%), and any additional  
convictions must be imposed consecutively.  (Penal Code  
section 667(c) and section 1170.12(a))

  Existing law  , unlike five year serious felony enhancement  
provisions, does not require that prior qualifying  
convictions arise in separate cases, and qualifying prior  
"strike" convictions need not arise from separate  
transactions that can otherwise not be separately punished.  
 (People v. Fuhrman (1997) 16 Cal.4th 830; People v. Benson  
(1998) 18 Cal.4th 24, 30; Penal Code section 667(a))
  
Existing law  provides that a juvenile adjudication of a  
sixteen-year old must be counted as a prior "strike" if the  
offense otherwise qualifies as an adult strike or would  
establish presumptive unfitness for juvenile court under  
Welfare and Institutions Code section 707(b), and the minor  
was declared to be a ward of juvenile court for commission  
of an offense listed in Welfare and Institutions Code  
section 707(b).  (Penal Code section 667(d)(3) and section  
1170.12(b)(3))<2>

  This bill  would require a study of the costs and benefits  
of the "Three Strikes" law by the Legislative Analyst, in  
cooperation with the Judicial Council, the Attorney  
General, and the University of California (upon approval by  
the Board of Regents).  The findings would be reported to  
the Legislature on or before July 1, 2000.  The report  
would examine the costs and benefits of the "Three Strikes"  
law in terms of crime reduction and prevention and would  
------------------------------
<2> There is substantial overlap among the lists of violent  
felonies, serious felonies and crimes of presumptive  
juvenile unfitness.  However, a few crimes, such as  
residential burglary do not constitute unfitness crimes.   
The California Supreme Court has not finally determined  
whether a juvenile adjudication for a serious felony such  
as residential burglary counts as a "strike" in a later  
adult case.  This issue is before the Supreme Court in  
People v. Gentry S069817. 



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provide a benefit/cost analysis of the law.  It would also  
assess the degree to which the law exacerbates selective  
law enforcement problems and the cost of corrective  
measures.  The study would utilize existing resources of  
the participating agencies.

                          COMMENTS

1.   Author's Statement  

According to the author:

     Claims and counter-claims as to the effectiveness and  
     costs of the "Three Strikes" law have been made by  
     many.  The Legislature and the electorate cannot make  
     sensible decisions about the "Three Strikes" law  
     unless we separate the wheat from the chaff in the  
     discussions and arguments about the effects and costs  
     of "Three Strikes."  This is critically important  
     because resources spent on incarcerating people for  
     life cannot be used for other public and private  
     purposes such as education.  We should use the state's  
     limited prison resources primarily for those persons  
     who truly present a danger of physical harm to others.  
      We have the esteemed expertise of the Legislative  
     Analyst's Office and the University of California to  
     study the "Three Strikes" law.  This issue is too  
     important for speculation and rhetoric, we must learn  
     what we can about this law and respond appropriately.

2.  "  Three Strikes" in More Detail  

The "Three Strikes" law was enacted by AB 971 (Jones/Costa)  
Chapter 12, Statutes of 1994 and by Proposition 184.   
Mandatory provisions of "Three Strikes" beyond those listed  
in "existing law," above include:

           A juvenile adjudication (a findings by a  
       juvenile court judge that the minor committed a  
       crime) may constitute an adult strike prior,  




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       although a juvenile cannot have a jury trial of  
       charges against him or her.  (See:  Comment #3  
       below.)

           A person sentenced under "Three Strikes" may  
       not be committed to any facility other than prison.

           "Three Strikes" prohibits plea-bargaining. 

           "Three Strikes" eliminates any "washout"  
       period, requiring that any prior serious or violent  
       felony conviction be used regardless of when it  
       occurred. 

           Under "Three Strikes," the prosecuting attorney  
       must plead and prove each prior felony conviction. 

           "Three Strikes" may only be amended by a  
       two-thirds vote of the Legislature or a ballot  
       measure approved by the electorate. 

3.   Issues Related to Prior Juvenile Offenses (Adjudications) to  
  Establish Prior "Strikes" in Adult Prosecutions  

The "Three Strikes" law defines a prior juvenile adjudication as  
a prior strike "conviction"<3> where the following are shown:

           The minor was at least 16 years old;

           The minor was found to be fit for juvenile court  
       treatment;

           The prior offense was one which rendered him or her  
       presumptively unfit for juvenile court (Welfare and  
       Institutions Code section 707(b)) or is defined as a  
     ------------------------------
<3> Juvenile delinquency matters are technically civil, not  
criminal, cases.  As the purpose of juvenile court law is  
rehabilitation of the minor and public safety, jury trials  
are not allowed and the minor may not refuse probation.   
(See:  Welfare and Institutions Code section 202 et seq.)



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       "serious" or "violent" felony for purposes of adult  
       sentencing;

           The minor was adjudged to be a ward of the juvenile  
       court for a crime of presumptive unfitness.  (Penal Code  
       sections 667(d)(3) and section 1170.12 (b)(3))

Arguably, these provisions are internally inconsistent or vague.  
 The California Supreme Court in People v. Davis (1997) 15  
Cal.4th 1096, a 4 to 3 decision, held that no special "fitness"  
hearing was necessary to render a juvenile adjudication a  
"strike" in a later adult prosecution, as such a finding is  
implied in every juvenile adjudication.  (Id, at 1098-1102.)   
The ruling in Davis was contrary to the belief of many  
practitioners.  Some district attorneys sought specific findings  
of fitness by judges or admissions of fitness as part of plea  
agreements in juvenile cases to insure that a juvenile offense  
would later constitute a prior "strike" conviction.   

The court in Davis left "for another day" the determination of  
whether juvenile serious felonies such as first degree burglary,  
which are not listed as crimes of presumptive unfitness in  
Welfare and Institutions Code (W&I) section 707(b), constitute  
strikes.  (Id, at 1103.)  That day will apparently dawn with the  
issuance of the ruling in People v. Gentry, S069817.  The  
appellate court in Gentry held that a prior juvenile offense  
must be listed in Welfare and Institutions Code section 707(b)  
in order to constitute a strike in a later adult prosecution.   
The Supreme Court has let stand an appellate decision contrary  
to Gentry, in People v. Griggs (1997) 53 Cal.App.4th 57, that  
held that failure of the "Three Strikes" law to clearly state  
that all juvenile serious felonies constitute strikes in later  
adult cases was a "drafting error."  If the Supreme Court so  
finds, the drafting error will be momentous.  

Many, if not most, practitioners believed that juvenile crimes  
such as first degree burglary did not constitute strikes, and  
thousands of juveniles admitted such offenses upon advice of  
counsel consistent with that belief.  Even where minors did not  
admit the commission of serious felonies, they were not entitled  




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to jury trials.

4.   Differentiation among Felonies  
 
Existing law differentiates between the severity of crimes.  
 Thus, some felony offenses, such as rape or murder, have  
higher penalties than others do, such as theft.  Under  
"Three Strikes," any felony conviction, not only a serious  
or violent felony conviction, following a violent or  
serious prior, results in a sentence of twice the normal  
length.  With any two violent or serious felony priors, a  
new felony conviction results in a life sentence.  Thus,  
"Three Strikes" makes no distinction in severity between  
different felonies.  For example, a person who was  
convicted of breaking into a neighbor's garage, whether  
attached to the home or not, on two occasions in order to  
steal a bicycle, and who was placed on probation for the  
offenses, would have two serious prior offenses.  Any  
residential burglary is defined as a "serious" felony,  
whether it occurs in the day or night and whether or not  
someone is actually in the residence.  Any third felony,  
such as theft of $400 worth of property, results in a life  
term under the provisions of "Three Strikes," regardless of  
whether or not he or she had ever acted violently or  
dangerously. Two counts of theft not committed on one  
occasion or arising from the same facts - two separate  
incidents - charged in one case will yield two, consecutive  
terms of twenty-five years to life.  Since the third felony  
can be any felony, forgery of a $10 check, petty theft with  
a prior, or possession of a stolen radio with two prior  
serious felonies would result in a life sentence.

5.   Violent and Serious Felonies Defined  

"Three Strikes" incorporates the definitions of violent and  
serious felonies as they existed on June 30, 1993.  For all  
practical purposes, all "violent" felonies are "serious"  







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felonies.<4> Thus the eligible "strikes" are aptly  
demonstrated by the serious felony list, with additional  
notations for violent offenses.  

Serious and violent felonies, as defined by Penal Code  
section 667.5(b) and section 1192.7, as they existed on June  
30, 1993, include the following: 

      a.  Murder or voluntary manslaughter (serious and  
       violent)
       
      b.  Mayhem (serious, and violent if by force or  
       threat of retaliation)
       
      c.  Rape (serious and violent)
       
      d.  Sodomy by force, violence, duress, menace, or  
       fear of bodily injury (serious and violent)
       
      e.  Oral copulation by force, violence, duress,  
       menace or fear of bodily injury (serious and  
       violent)
       
      f.  Lewd act with child under fourteen years of age  
       (serious and violent)
       
      g.  Any felony punishable by death or life  
      ---------------------------
<4> Continuous sexual abuse of a child is a violent felony,  
but is not listed as a serious felony.  Continuous sexual  
abuse of child would, however, generally involve repeated  
sexual crimes against a child which are individually listed  
as serious felonies in any event, such as lewd acts with a  
child or forcible oral copulation of a child.  Continuous  
sexual abuse is generally charged in conjunction with other  
crimes in order to fully punish relatives and intimates of  
sexually abused children who abuse their special access and  
control over the victims, and to lessen difficulty of proof  
as to individual acts where the victim is very young and  
has an undeveloped sense of time.  (Penal Code section  
288.5)



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       imprisonment (serious and violent)

      h.  Any felony in which defendant inflicts great  
       bodily injury on defendant or personally uses a  
       firearm (serious and violent)
       
      i.  Attempted murder (serious and violent)
       
      j.  Assault with intent to commit rape/robbery   
       (serious)
       
      k.  Assault with a deadly weapon on peace officer  
       (serious)
       
      l.  Assault by life prisoner on a non-inmate  
       (serious)
       
      m. Assault with a deadly weapon by inmate (serious)
       
      n.  Arson (serious, and violent if causes great  
       bodily injury)
       
      o.  Exploding a destructive device with intent to  
       injure (serious)
       
      p.  Explosion causing great bodily injury or mayhem  
       (serious)
       
      q.  Explosion with intent to murder (serious and  
       violent)
       
      r.  Burglary of inhabited dwelling (serious, and  
       violent if resident is present and weapon used)
       
      s.  Robbery or bank robbery (serious, and violent if  
       the robbery was a residential robbery  with the use  
       of a weapon)

      t.  Kidnapping (serious, and violent if for purposes  
       of sex crimes against a child)




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      u.  Inmate taking a hostage (serious)

      v.  Attempted death or life crime (serious)
       
      w.  Any felony where defendant personally uses a  
       dangerous or deadly weapon (serious)
       
      x.  Sale or furnishing heroin, cocaine, PCP, or  
       methamphetamine to a minor (serious)
       
      y.  Forcible foreign object rape (serious, and  
       violent in most cases)
       
      z.  Grand theft involving a firearm (serious)
       
      aa.  Attempts to commit any felony listed in a-z  
       except assault (serious) 

6.   Judicial Discretion  

The California Supreme Court held in People v. Superior  
Court of San Diego County (Romero), (1996) 13 Cal. 4th 497,  
that for purposes of "Three Strikes," a court may on its  
own motion strike a prior felony conviction allegation in  
the furtherance of justice.  However, the court's  
discretion to strike prior offenses is limited.  "Its  
exercise must proceed in strict compliance with section  
1385(a) and is subject to review for abuse." (Ibid.)  

The court must consider the rights of both the defendant  
and of society and may not strike a prior solely for  
reasons of judicial convenience or because of court  
congestion or of an agreement to plead guilty, or because  
of personal disagreement with the effects of the "Three  
Strikes" law.  Courts must focus on the nature of the  
present offenses, the defendant's background and other  
"individualized considerations." 

In People v. Williams (1998) 17 Cal.4th 148, the California  




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Supreme Court further strictly limited the discretion of  
trial court to dismiss a prior conviction.  The court in  
Williams essentially held that a trial court abuses its  
discretion in dismissing a prior strike if the defendant's  
criminality has been unbroken. This is true even where the  
defendant's current conviction, as was the case in  
Williams, is not for a serious or violent felony (a  
conviction that qualifies as a prior "strike."  A defendant  
who seeks relief through a dismissal of a prior "strike"  
must establish that he or she should be treated as though  
he or she falls outside the scope of the "Three Strikes"  
law.  (Id, at 161.)

A trial court's discretion to deem a "wobbler" to be a  
misdemeanor pursuant to Penal Code section 17(b), and the  
Alvarez decision  (People v. Alvarez (1997) 14 Cal.4th  
968), may be slightly wider than the discretion to dismiss  
a prior conviction.  However such a decision must also be  
made only after consideration of all relevant facts,  
including a defendant's prior qualifying ("serious" or  
"violent") convictions under the "Three Strikes" law, such  
a discretionary decision is also of limited scope. 

The very limited use of sentencing discretion by trial  
judges has been clearly demonstrated by applicable data.   
Commitments to prison under the "Three Strikes" law stayed  
virtually constant after the Romero and Alvarez decisions.   
 (Three Strikes Update, Legislative Analyst's Office,  
October 1997.)

7.   Current Data from the California Department of  
  Corrections Shows Who is in Prison under "Three Strikes  "

     a)     Total prison population, March 29, 1999          
         159,911
            Total prison population, March 29, 1998          
         156,662
            Percentage increase in the last year             
                              2%





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     b)     March 4, 1999 DOC data analysis of "Three Strikes"  
       prison population:
            Total cases under the "Three Strikes" law  
       account for approximately 30%
             of prison inmates.

         Second "strike" (one prior strike conviction)  
       inmates total              39,997
         Third "strike" (two prior strike convictions)  
       inmates total                5,043  
               Total "strike" inmates                          
       45,040

     c)     Breakdown of "strike" offenses by types of crimes  
       for which inmates were sentenced to prison:

         "Second Strike" Cases (one prior "serious" felony):

              Crimes against Persons                              
              20.0%
              Drug Crimes                                         
              31.8%
              Property Crimes                                     
             35.9 %
              "Other" Crimes                                      
         10.4%
              Missing Data                                        
                1.9%

                            "Second Strike" inmates with  
               non-serious/nonviolent current offenses are  
               approximately 78%.


               "Third Strike" Cases:

                    Drug Crimes                               
       19.4 %
                    Property Crimes                           




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       31.6 %
                    Crimes against Persons                     
       40.2%
                    "Other" Crimes                         8.9%
                    Missing Data                                 
       1.2%

                            "Third Strike" Inmates with  
               nonserious/nonviolent current 
                            offenses are approximately 50%.

     d)     Specific Crime Comparisons:

               Inmates Serving "Second Strike" (Doubled) Terms:

               Simple Possession of 
                   (non-marijuana) Controlled Substances:    
                8,157
               All Sex Crimes                                
                                                             
                        1,237
               Robbery (with and without weapons)            
                                                             
                             3,061
               Commercial (non-residential) Burglary         
                             3,287
               Residential Burglary                          
                                                             
                                                             
                             1,978
               Murder (first and second degree)              
                                                             
                                222  

               Total "Second Strike" Inmates                 
                                                             
                                                             
                           39,997

         Inmates Serving "Third Strike" (Twenty-five Years to  




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       Life) Terms:

                        Simple Possession of 
                            (non-marijuana) Controlled  
       Substances       498
                        All Sex Crimes                            
        239
                        Robbery (with and without weapons)        
             912
                        Commercial (non-residential) Burglary     
              347
                        Residential Burglary                      
             580
                        Murder (first and second degree)          
             161  
                        
                        Total "Third Strike" Inmates:             
          5,043

8.   Justice Policy Institute Statistical Study on Implementation  
and Effects of "Three Strikes  "

The Justice Policy Institute (JPI) along with the University of  
California, Irvine School of Social Ecology doctoral candidate  
Mark Males recently published a study, Striking Out, on the  
implementation of the "Three Strikes" law in various California  
counties.  The study used data collected by the Department of  
Corrections and the California Department of Justice from the  
twelve largest counties in California.

     a)     Data on the numbers and proportions of defendants  
       sentenced pursuant to "Three Strikes" by county:

          The JPI study examined the data on the defendants sent  
          to prison from each of the twelve largest counties  
          under "Three Strikes" sentences.  The data included  
          raw numbers and the proportion of "Three Strikes"  
          sentences in contrast to other prison terms from each  
          county.  The study concluded that the proportion of  
          defendants sent to prison under "Three Strikes"  




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          reflected the charging policies of the county district  
          attorney.  The authors of the study concluded that a  
          county's reliance upon, or heavy use of, the "Three  
                                                        Strikes" law in sentencing did not correlate to lower  
          rates of crimes.  Counties such as Alameda and San  
          Francisco that sent a very smaller percentage of  
          defendants to prison under "Three Strikes" sentences  
          had greater decreases in crime, particularly violent  
          crime, than did counties such as Sacramento and Los  
          Angeles, that relied heavily upon "Three Strikes" in  
          charging and sentencing clients.
                                  
                     Table 3 from Striking Out
                                  
The counties sentencing the most heavily under "There Strikes"  
do not show the biggest crime declines.

               Sentencing Rates:             Postlaw change* in  
rate of:
                                    3rd                   2nd &  
3rd                                                               
       All
                                  Strike                   Strikes*   
                      Homicide          Violent           Index  

Sacramento               3.6                        26            
                  -22.1                 -6.4                -3.2
Los Angeles              3.6                        33.5          
                 -27.9               -28.2              -27.5
San Diego                 3.4                        35.3         
                  -38.2               -22.8              -28.1
Riverside                   2.7                        27.1       
                    -25.7              -18                 -24
Fresno                       2.6                        21.5      
                      -20                   -1.4                 
-9.2
Santa Clara                2.6                          23.4          
                    -24.6                   9                  
  -18.9  
Avg. Six Heaviest    3.1                        27.8              




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               -26.4              -12.7              -18.5

Orange                     2.4                         21.1       
                    -30.9               -15.6              -28.8
San Bernardino        2.1                        17               
                -23.9               -20.9              -16.1
Contra Costa            1.4                        15.7           
                 -32.9               -21.7              -15
Ventura                    1.3                        18.8        
                    -26.6               -24.3              -22
Alameda                  0.7                          5.9         
                   -24.2               -17.2              -13.7
San Francisco           0.3                            4.9            
                  -31.8                 -28                  -24.5
  Avg. Six Lightest    1.4                        13.9              
              -28.4               -21.3                -2.0

                              *Sentencing rate is per 1,000  
felonies by county.  Postlaw change compares 
                                reported crime rate for  
1995-1997 (postlaw) to that of 1991-1993 (prelaw).

(Source:  California Criminal Justice Statistics Center;  
California Department of Corrections, Date Analysis Unit.)
        
        The JPI study authors summarized their conclusions about  
       county by county use of "Three Strikes" and crime rates:

          Data clearly shows that counties that  
          vigorously and strictly enforce the "Three  
          Strikes" law did not experience a decline in  
          any crime category relative to more lenient  
          counties.  The absence of any difference in  
          relative crime rates occurred despite the  
          fact that the six largest counties [in terms  
          of use of "Three Strikes"] applied the law  
          at a rate 2.2 times greater than the six  
          counties that invoked the law least.  Even  
          more remarkable, the sevenfold greater use  
          of "Three Strikes" in Sacramento and Los  




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          Angeles was not associated with a bigger  
          crime decline than in Alameda and San  
          Francisco, two counties that rarely use the  
          law.  In fact, San Francisco, the county  
          which uses "Three Strikes" most sparingly,  
          witnessed a greater decline in violent  
          crime, homicides and all index crime than  
          most of the six heaviest enforcing counties.

     b)  Data as to the ages of defendants sentenced pursuant to  
"Three Strikes":

       The data indicated that the target population for  
       deterrence from "Three Strikes" - felons between thirty  
       and forty years of age - were not likely deterred from  
       crime, as crime rates grew in this age group after "Three  
       Strikes" in comparison with other age groups in  
       California:

       The JPI Study Concluded:

          Under deterrence and selective  
          incapacitation theory, one would expect that  
          the most dramatic declines would occur in  
          the over thirty age group, since this is the  
          population disproportionately targeted by  
          "Three Strikes". In contrast, declines among  
          the twenty to twenty-four year old age  
          groups would be negligible because smaller  
          proportions of felons from this population  
          are receiving enhanced sentences.  However,  
          age group crime patterns reveal a directly  
          opposite effect than what would be predicted  
          by the selective incapacitation and  
          deterrence arguments for "Three Strikes."   
          The table and graph below compare age group  
          crime patterns for the three years after the  
          law took effect (1995-1997) and the three  
          years prior to the law's enactment  
          (1991-1993).  An analysis of crime data for  




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          these years does not support the "Three  
          Strike" crime reduction through selective  
          incapacitation and deterrence effect.

   Table 1:  Older offenders are more heavily sentenced under  
                          "Three Strikes"

                               Number sentenced for:              
     Number of 3rd Strike sentences per 1,000
                           2nd Strike                   3rd Strike    
                     Violent Crimes                 Felonies  

Under 20                 470                              14      
                                0.1                               
     0
20-24                   5,009                             176     
                                1.7                               
     0.5
25-29                   7,603                             653     
                                7.1                               
     1.9
30-39                 15,297                          2,224       
                            13.9                                  
  3.8
40-49                   5,873                          1,071      
                             16.7                                 
   4.6
50+                       1,111                              220     
                                10.7                                
      3.5
  Total                 35,363                            4,368 

(Source:  California Department of Corrections, Data Analysis  
Unit.  Second-Strike Cases,
June 30, 1998)

9.  Bill Jones, California Secretary of State and Co-Author of the  
  "Three Strikes" Law  :  
  Five-Year Report on the Success of "Three Strikes  "





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In a press release dated February 26, 1999, Secretary Jones  
asserts that the "Three Strikes" law is responsible for the  
decline in crime in California:  

     The theory was simple, if we could incarcerate the small  
     percentage of criminals who commit the vast majority of  
     crimes, we could effectively lower the crime rate and save  
     thousands of lives.  Five years later, we have witnessed a  
     reduction in crime that is greater than even the most  
     optimistic "Three Strikes" supporters predicted.

Secretary Jones cited California Department of Justice (DOJ)  
statistics that overall crime in California is down 38% and that  
murder and robbery rates are down by 50%.  He attributes the  
decline to the "Three Strikes" law.  Secretary Jones further  
argues that "Three Strikes" has deterred recidivists:  

     [I]n 1994, the year that "Three Strikes" was put in place,  
     more parolees left the state than entered for the first  
     time since 1976.  That trend continues to this day.

The actual number of parolees leaving--as opposed to  
entering--California is not stated in the report.  The report  
does not indicate whether "parolees leaving" have been formally  
transferred to other states for supervision, absconded or have  
left California after successfully completing parole, including  
those who may have been residents of other states prior to  
conviction in California.

The data from DOC indicates that a very small change in raw  
numbers and proportions of California parolees who have opted  
for sister-state supervision since "Three Strikes."  Less than  
2% of California parolees are in out-of-state supervision.  

DOC data further reflects a less than 7% increase in the number  
of California parolees who have opted for supervision in other  
states since "Three Strikes" became law.  This occurred over a  
period of a time in which the numbers of prison inmates, and  
hence the parole population, rose significantly.  





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Data from Department of Corrections on California parolees in  
out-of-state supervision:

     Out-of-state parole supervision for 1993                     
      2045
     Out-of-state parole supervision for 1995                     
      2764
     Out-of-state parole supervision for 1998                     
      2193

     Total parole population on March 28, 1999                
     112,614
     Percentage of parolees out-of-state                          
        2%

Similar trends are reflected in the numbers of out-of-state  
parolees who have opted for supervision in California.  The  
numbers initially fell from 2,271 in 1993 to 1,275 in 1997.   
However, in 1998 the number of out-of-state parolees in  
California began rising again to 1,284.  As of March 28, 1999,  
1,316 sister state parolees are under California supervision.   
This is occurring during a period when crime rates are declining  
nationwide.

Finally, Secretary Jones argues that "[t]he economic savings to  
the people of California from the reduction in crime during the  
"Three Strikes" era is between $8.2 billion and $21.7 billion."

10.   Cost of "Three Strikes  "

On February 20, 1996, the Senate Committees on Judiciary,  
Criminal Procedure, and Budget and Fiscal Review held a  
joint informational hearing on "The Impact of 'Three  
Strikes' Law on the Civil and Criminal Justice System in  
California."  Representatives were invited from state and  
county correctional systems, judges, city and county  
representatives, district attorneys, defense counsel,  
police and sheriffs' representatives, and independent penal  
and fiscal experts.





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At the six-hour hearing, the Committees learned that the  
impact of "Three Strikes" has varied widely between  
counties, but courts, jails and prosecution and defense  
efforts have been impacted in virtually all counties.

The Legislative Analyst's office noted at the hearing that  
although more than 90% of all felony cases are disposed of  
through plea bargaining in which the defendant ultimately  
agrees to plead guilty, many fewer offenders are agreeing  
to plead guilty in "Three Strikes" cases, presumably  
because of the much longer sentences.  This has resulted in  
many more cases going to trial and many more defendants  
being held in county jail awaiting or undergoing trial.

The backlog of criminal cases has pushed some misdemeanor  
and low-level felony cases out of court, as well as civil  
cases in some jurisdictions.  The "Three Strikes" law has  
limited the ability of public defenders' offices to handle  
misdemeanor cases for indigent defendants.  

Because of the impact "Three Strikes" cases have on jails,  
some counties are no longer booking misdemeanants and are  
releasing more sentenced and pre-sentenced "Three Strikes"  
offenders from custody.  Assaults within the jail systems  
have increased, apparently due to the number of "Three  
Strikes" cases, where the inmates are facing substantially  
longer terms.

Recent data continues to document the cost of the "Three  
Strikes" law, particularly in Los Angeles County, which  
prosecutes approximately 40% of the "Three Strikes" cases  
statewide.  Through 1997, the cost of "Three Strikes" cases  
to the Los Angeles County Public Defender's Office has been  
over $80 million, costs to the prosecution totaled  
approximately $75 million and costs to the Sheriff were  
approximately $140 million.  Because of the impact on Los  
Angeles County, it has filed a claim with the Commission on  
State Mandates for $322 million for the costs of "Three  
Strikes" to the county through 1997.





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The RAND Corporation reported on the cost of "Three  
Strikes" implementation.  The first, a 1994 study,  
determined that full implementation of "Three Strikes"  
could reduce crime by 21% at a cost to the state of an  
additional $5.5 billion per year, primarily for prison  
operations.  RAND researcher, Dr. Peter Greenwood, Ph.D.,  
testified at an Assembly Committee on Public Safety hearing  
in October 1997 on "Three Strikes and Judicial Discretion"  
that approximately 10% of the reduction in crime in  
California could be attributed to the "Three Strikes" law.

Another RAND study, Diverting Children From a Life of  
Crime:  Measuring Costs and Benefits, concludes that a  
combination of graduation incentives and parent training  
could achieve a similar amount of crime reduction for less  
than $1 billion, or less than 20% of the cost of the "Three  
Strikes" program.

11.   Prison Saturation Population Numbers  

The Associated Press, in an article printed in the April 2,  
1999 issue of the Sacramento Bee reported that California  
prisons are dangerously overcrowded.  Current DOC data  
shows a prison population of approximately 160,000.  The  
design capacity of all facilities is approximately 80,000.   
The prison system is thus at 200% of capacity.


















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The Bee article, "April 2001, No More Room at Inn," quoted  
Robert Presley, Director of Youth and Adult Correctional  
Agency (YACA) on the conditions in California prisons.   
Presley told the AP that the prison system "is approaching  
critical mass . . . [By] April, 2001 . . . we will have  
exhausted every cranny and nook."   

Every "cranny and nook" includes converted gymnasiums, with  
bunk beds in long rows, and other rooms and spaces never  
designed to house inmates.  Despite saturation inmate  
numbers, the electorate has not approved a prison  
construction (general obligation) bond in a decade.  Other  
forms of prison financing, including a complex leasing  
arrangement between state agencies, is more expensive than  
general obligation bonds.  Such measures raise  
constitutional budget issues and have not found easy  
passage in the Legislature.  

Director Presley noted in the AP article that YACA will  
seek to increase drug treatment for prisoners.  The Little  
Hoover Commission has found such treatment to be quite  
successful in reducing recidivism.  However, under the  
"Three Strikes" law, an inmate serving a life term for a  
current drug offense cannot be released for at least twenty  
years.  Neither society nor inmates could see substantial  
benefits from drug treatment for inmates imprisoned for  
life at a current annual cost of about $23,000.

SHOULD THE LEGISLATURE COMMISSION A STUDY BY THE  
LEGISLATIVE ANALYST, WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF THE UNIVERSITY  
OF CALIFORNIA, THE ATTORNEY GENERAL AND THE JUDICIAL  
COUNCIL, TO ACCURATELY AND FULLY ANALYZE THE EFFECTS AND  
COSTS OF THE THREE STRIKES LAW?

12.   Related Legislation  

SB 79 (Hayden), also scheduled to be heard in this  
committee today, would change the "Three-Strikes" law to  
require that a third strike must be a serious or violent  











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felony.

AB 1247 (Baugh), currently in the Assembly Public Safety  
Committee, would also require a study of the  
"Three-Strikes" law by the Legislative Analyst.

                      ***************