BILL ANALYSIS                                                                                                                                                                                                    



                                                                  ACR 77
                                                                  Page  1


          ASSEMBLY THIRD READING
          ACR 77 (Swanson)
          As Amended  July 15, 2009
          Majority vote 

           ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT           7-0                   
          APPROPRIATIONS      17-0        
           
           ----------------------------------------------------------------- 
          |Ayes:|V. Manuel Perez, Logue,   |Ayes:|De Leon, Conway, Ammiano, |
          |     |Beall,                    |     |                          |
          |     |Bill Berryhill, Block,    |     |Charles Calderon, Coto,   |
          |     |Huber, Salas              |     |Davis, Fuentes, Hall,     |
          |     |                          |     |Harkey, Miller, Nielsen,  |
          |     |                          |     |John A. Perez, Skinner,   |
          |     |                          |     |Solorio, Audra            |
          |     |                          |     |Strickland, Torlakson,    |
          |     |                          |     |Hill                      |
          |-----+--------------------------+-----+--------------------------|
          |     |                          |     |                          |
           ----------------------------------------------------------------- 
           SUMMARY  :  Calls on the Air Resources Board (ARB) to include a  
          sector-based workforce impact assessment and mitigation plan  
          within its analysis of the AB 32 Scoping Plan and related  
          rulemaking.  The analysis is required to include:

          1)An analysis of the projected employment impacts of the  
            proposed measure by industry sector in each of the years  
            leading up to 2020, and beyond, that specifies, in particular,  
            the potential for green collar jobs to be located in or  
            outside California.

          2)An identification of the types of jobs that will be created in  
            California, the industry sectors for which the jobs will be  
            created, and the wage and benefit levels expected for those  
            jobs.

          3)An identification of the types of jobs, including industry  
            sectors, that may be lost in California.

          4)A plan for providing California workers a training program for  
            new green technology jobs that are different from the  
            traditional jobs in energy, transportation, and construction.

           EXISTING LAW  requires ARB: 







                                                                  ACR 77
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          1)To adopt a statewide greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) limit  
            equivalent to 1990 levels by 2020 and adopt regulations to  
            achieve maximum technologically feasible and cost-effective  
            GHG emission reductions.     

          2)To adopt a "Scoping Plan" for AB 32 implementation by January  
            1, 2009, including an evaluation of the total potential costs  
            and total potential economic and non-economic benefits to  
            California's economy, environment, and public health, using  
            the best available economic models, emission estimation  
            techniques, and other scientific methods.

          3)When adopting AB 32 regulations, to rely upon the best  
            available economic and scientific information and its  
            assessment of existing and projected technological  
            capabilities.

           FISCAL EFFECT  :  According to the Assembly Appropriations,  
          incorporating the requested information into the economic  
          analysis would cost the ARB approximately $3 million in Air  
          Pollution Control funds.


           COMMENTS  :

          1)Purpose of the resolution:  According to the author, AB 32  
            (Nunez and Pavley), Chapter 488, Statutes of 2006, was a  
            landmark piece of legislation that set the bar high for  
            reducing GHG emissions in California.  However, without  
            appropriate implementation, AB 32 could eliminate economic  
            opportunities for some, in the course of providing  
            opportunities to others.  

            According to a U.C. Berkley Center for Labor Research and  
            Education (UCB) report, more industry-specific and  
            occupational research is greatly needed to assess the  
            workforce needs of the state's emerging green economy.  In  
            addition, a report by the Legislative Analyst's Office (LAO)  
            states that the ARB's economic analysis has weaknesses that  
            need to be addressed.  In order to direct resources to the  
            proper areas, such as training, retraining, and education  
            programs that will provide workers with the skill sets  
            necessary to work in the jobs created by a new green economy,  
            an accurate analysis is crucial for policymakers.







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            The author states that ACR 77 is not meant to undermine the  
            provisions of AB 32; it was introduced to develop a win-win  
            scenario.  The resolution simply encourages ARB to conduct a  
            more comprehensive analysis of the impact that AB 32 will have  
            on jobs in the state, to ensure that California is maintaining  
            employment opportunities and preparing the workforce for the  
            emerging green economy.  

          2)The Scoping Plan:  Existing law requires the ARB to approve  
            and implement a framework for California to reduce GHG  
            emissions to 1990 levels by 2020 and to reach 80% of 1990 GHG  
            emission levels by 2050.  In December 2008, the ARB approved  
            the Scoping Plan to begin this work.  

            ACR 77 asks for further analysis to be considered within the  
            Scoping Plan, particularly in the area of its impact on  
            workforce and the related training needs that may occur in  
            implementing the programs, fees, and regulations identified in  
            the Scoping Plan.  The additional analysis is based on  
            recommendations by the by the LAO and the UCB, which are  
            discussed below.  Below is a general summary of the Scoping  
            Plan including a chart of the proposed emission reduction  
            actions.  


             --------------------------------------------------------------- 
            |   Recommended Greenhouse Gas Reduction Measures   |   2020    |
            |                                                   |Reductions |
            |                                                   | (MMTCO2E) |
            |---------------------------------------------------+-----------|
            |Estimated Reductions from the combination of the   |   146.7   |
            |Cap-and-Trade Program and complementary measures   |   total   |
            |including the 12 items below.                      |           |
            |                                                   |           |
            |---------------------------------------------------+-----------|
            |1.  California Light-Duty Vehicle GHG Standards    |   31.7    |
            |(Transportation Sector)                            |           |
            |       Implement Pavley standards                 |           |
            |        Develop Pavley II light-duty vehicle      |           |
            |     standards                                     |           |
            |---------------------------------------------------+-----------|
            |2.  Energy Efficiency (Electricity & Commercial    |   26.3    |
            |and Residential Sectors)                           |           |
            |       Building and appliance energy efficiency   |           |







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            |     and conservation                              |           |
            |       Increase Combined Heat and Power (CHP)     |           |
            |     electricity production by 30,000 Wh           |           |
            |        Solar Water Heating (AB 1470 goal)        |           |
            |---------------------------------------------------+-----------|
            |3.  Renewables Portfolio Standard (33% by 2020)    |   21.3    |
            |(Electricity Sector)                               |           |
            |---------------------------------------------------+-----------|
            |4.  Low Carbon Fuel Standard (Transportation       |    15     |
            |Sector)                                            |           |
            |---------------------------------------------------+-----------|
            |5.  Regional Transportation-Related GHG Targets    |     5     |
            |---------------------------------------------------+-----------|
            |6.  Vehicle Efficiency Measures (Transportation    |    4.5    |
            |Sector)                                            |           |
            |---------------------------------------------------+-----------|
            |7.  Goods Movement (Transportation Sector)         |    3.7    |
            |       Ship Electrification at Ports              |           |
            |        System-Wide Efficiency Improvements       |           |
            |---------------------------------------------------+-----------|
            |8.  Million Solar Roofs (Existing Program Target)  |    2.1    |
            |(Electricity Sector)                               |           |
            |---------------------------------------------------+-----------|
            |9.  Heavy/Medium Duty Vehicles (Transportation     |    1.4    |
            |Sector)                                            |           |
            |       Heavy-Duty Vehicle GHG Emission Reduction  |           |
            |     (Aerodynamic Efficiency)                      |           |
            |        Medium- and Heavy-Duty Vehicle            |           |
            |     Hybridization                                 |           |
            |---------------------------------------------------+-----------|
            |10.  High Speed Rail (Transportation Sector)       |    1.0    |
            |---------------------------------------------------+-----------|
            |11.  Industrial Measurer for sources covered under |    0.3    |
            |the cap-and-trade program including refineries and |           |
            |energy efficiency and co-benefits audits (various  |           |
            |industry sectors)                                  |           |
            |---------------------------------------------------+-----------|
            |12.  Additional reductions necessary to achieve    |   34.4    |
            |the cap                                            |           |
            |---------------------------------------------------+-----------|
            |                                                   |           |
            |---------------------------------------------------+-----------|
            |   Estimated Reductions from Uncapped Sources as   |27.3 total |
            |             indicated in 1 to 4 below             |           |
            |---------------------------------------------------+-----------|







                                                                  ACR 77
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            |1.  High Global Warming Potential Gas Measures     |   20.2    |
            |(various sectors)                                  |           |
            |          Reduction of Use, Recapture and Recovery|           |
            |---------------------------------------------------+-----------|
            |2.  Sustainable Forests (Forestry Sector)          |    5.0    |
            |---------------------------------------------------+-----------|
            |3.  Industrial Sectors not covered under the       |    1.1    |
            |cap-and-trade program including oil and gas        |           |
            |extraction and transmission                        |           |
            |---------------------------------------------------+-----------|
            |4.  Recycling & Waste including landfill methane   |    1.0    |
            |capture (Recycling and Waste Sector)               |           |
            |---------------------------------------------------+-----------|
            |Total Reductions Counted Toward 2020 Targets       | 174 total |
            |---------------------------------------------------+-----------|
            |                                                   |           |
            |---------------------------------------------------+-----------|
            |Other Recommended Measures items 1 to 6 below      |   2020    |
            |                                                   |Reductions |
            |                                                   | (MMTCO2E) |
            |---------------------------------------------------+-----------|
            |1.  State Government Operations                    |    1-2    |
            |---------------------------------------------------+-----------|
            |2.  Local Government Actions and Regional GHG      |    TBD    |
            |Target                                             |           |
            |---------------------------------------------------+-----------|
            |3.  Green Buildings                                |    26     |
            |---------------------------------------------------+-----------|
            |4.  Recycling and Waste including mandatory        |     9     |
            |commercial recycling                               |           |
            |---------------------------------------------------+-----------|
            |5.  Water Sector Measures                          |    4.8    |
            |---------------------------------------------------+-----------|
            |6.  Methane Capture at Large Dairies (Agriculture  |    1      |
            |Sector)                                            |           |
             --------------------------------------------------------------- 
             --------------------------------------------------------------- 
            |Source:  AB 32 Scoping Plan, CARB,                             |
            |2008                                                           |
            |                                                               |
             --------------------------------------------------------------- 

            In implementing this Scoping Plan, ARB forecast a net gain of  
            $33 billion in economic activity resulting in $7 billion in  
            additional GSP.  In addition, ARB states that many of the  







                                                                  ACR 77
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            measures in the plan will deliver significant gains in energy  
            efficiency.  ARB believes that even with the projected  
            increases in per unit energy costs, that implementation of the  
            actions in the Scoping Plan will result in annual savings per  
            household of between $400 and $500 on average by 2020.   
            Similar savings are projected in the transportation area.  It  
            is further stated that the state's proactive climate change  
            policy will create a strong incentive for additional private  
            investment. 

            The Scoping Plan also recommends, and the ARB is currently in  
            the process of adopting, fees to fund the state's  
            implementation and administration of AB 32.  Existing law  
            specifies that these fees can be assessed on the sources of  
            GHG emissions which include, but are not limited to:   
            producers and importers of transportation fuels, refineries,  
            cement manufacturers importers of out-of-state electricity,  
            facilities that combust coal, and natural gas utilities and  
            pipeline owners and operators.

            AB 32 implementation costs are estimated by the ARB to be $24  
            million in 2007-08; $32 million in 2008-09; and $39 million in  
            2009-10 for a total program start-up cost of $95 million  
            through June 30, 2010.  ARB's proposed AB 32 budget for FY  
            2009-10 includes funding for 177 personnel years for a variety  
            of boards and departments, 155 of which are located at ARB.   
            To the extent that the Scoping Plan has been adequately  
            prepared, the fee schedule and implementation plans may be  
            inappropriate.
             
          3)Independent Review of the Scoping Plan:  The purpose of the  
            Scoping Plan is to provide significant background and policy  
            direction for the state to use in charting a path toward a  
            lower carbon economy.  Questions have arisen about the current  
            Scoping Plan, however, as to whether ARB has fully addressed  
            all relevant issues and whether sufficient care has been taken  
            to choose the most cost-effective, equitable, and least  
            economically damaging GHG emission reduction actions.  These  
            concerns have been raised by a number of stakeholders  
            including policy makers, environmental justice groups, and  
            business and labor organizations.  

            Due to this heightened scrutiny, a number of independent  
            reviews were undertaken of the Scoping Plan.  The LAO's review  
            of the Scoping Plan found, among other things, that it was  







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            inconsistent, incomplete, and contained "rudimentary"  
            macroeconomic modeling.   In conclusion, the LAO recommended  
            that the Legislature continue its oversight as the ARB further  
            developed actions related to the Scoping Plan.  

            UCB's review found that implementation of AB 32 presents  
            significant challenges to the state and in the absence of  
            careful and farsighted implementation strategies California  
            could lose businesses to other regions in the country and  
            ultimately result in trading well-paying jobs for new jobs of  
            lesser quality.  In addition, the UCB analysis found that the  
            selected macroeconomic models were inadequate, provided  
            inconsistent findings, and were not appropriate for fully  
            capturing data related to dislocation of workers within  
            specific industries.  While, overall, the report supports  
            ARB's individual policy recommendations, it recommends that  
            additional steps be taken to protect workers who are likely to  
            lose jobs.   
           

          Analysis Prepared by  :    Toni Symonds / J., E.D. & E. / (916)  
          319-2090 


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