BILL ANALYSIS                                                                                                                                                                                                    



                                                                  AB 118
                                                                  Page  1

          Date of Hearing:  January 11, 2010

                       ASSEMBLY COMMITTEE ON NATURAL RESOURCES
                                Nancy Skinner, Chair
                    AB 118 (Logue) - As Amended:  January 4, 2010
           
          SUBJECT  :  California Global Warming Solutions Act of 2006 (AB  
          32)

           SUMMARY  :  Suspends AB 32 until the state unemployment rate is  
          5.5 percent or lower for four consecutive quarters.

           EXISTING LAW  requires the Air Resources Board (ARB), pursuant to  
          AB 32, to adopt a statewide greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions limit  
          equivalent to 1990 levels by 2020 and adopt regulations to  
          achieve maximum technologically feasible and cost-effective GHG  
          emission reductions.  Among its provisions, AB 32 authorizes the  
          Governor to delay deadlines for individual regulations, or for  
          the state in the aggregate, for up to one year at a time in the  
          event of extraordinary circumstances, catastrophic events, or  
          threat of significant economic harm.

           THIS BILL  :

          1)Suspends AB 32 until the state unemployment rate (currently  
            12.3 percent) is 5.5 percent or lower for four consecutive  
            quarters, and requires AB 32 to be suspended any time in the  
            future that unemployment rises above 5.5 percent for four  
            quarters, until unemployment drops below 5.5 percent.

          2)Prohibits ARB and any other state agency from acting on  
            regulations pursuant to AB 32 during a suspension and provides  
            that existing regulations, adopted prior to January 2011,  
            shall be inoperative during a suspension.

          3)Requests that local agencies refrain from adopting rules,  
            regulations, and policies that derive authority from AB 32,  
            and repeal or revise rules adopted prior to January 2011,  
            during a suspension.

          4)Provides that the provisions of the bill are severable.

          5)Contains related findings and declarations suggesting that  
            implementation of AB 32 would impose significant economic  
            harm.








                                                                  AB 118
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           FISCAL EFFECT  :  Unknown

           COMMENTS  :   

           1)Unemployment below 5.5 percent is unusual.   According to labor  
            statistics published by the Employment Development Department  
            (EDD), the state's unemployment rate is currently 12.3 percent  
            and has been above 5.5 percent since July 2007.  A survey of  
            EDD data shows that 5.5 percent is an uncommonly low  
            employment rate.  Since 1976, there have been just three  
            periods when unemployment has remained below 5.5 percent for  
            four or more quarters:  January 1988 through December 1989,  
            October 1999 through June 2001, and October 2005 through June  
            2007.  The many significant clean air and energy efficiency  
            programs adopted over the past 30 years in California, with  
            well-documented public health and consumer benefits, would  
            have been thwarted if their implementation had been dependent  
            on unemployment remaining below 5.5 percent.

           2)Is AB 32 to blame for unemployment?   The author has not  
            offered, and the committee has been unable to find, any  
            evidence that implementation of AB 32 has contributed to the  
            rise in unemployment since the bill was enacted three years  
            ago.  It seems premature to draw conclusions about AB 32's  
            effect on employment or the economy in general because very  
            few regulations have been implemented at this time.  However,  
            most existing studies suggest positive effects, such as  
            relatively high employment growth in "green jobs" and  
            significant private investment in clean technology businesses  
            within California, despite generally negative trends for the  
            economy as a whole.  The most notable exception is a study of  
            the costs of AB 32 on small businesses prepared by Sanjay  
            Varshney for the California Small Business Roundtable.  The  
            Varshney study estimates that the annual costs resulting from  
            the implementation of AB 32 to small businesses are likely to  
            result in loss of more than $182.6 billion in gross state  
            output, the equivalent of more than 1.1 million jobs, nearly  
            $76.8 billion in labor income, and nearly $5.8 billion in  
            indirect business taxes.  It is worth noting that the Varshney  
            study considers only potential compliance costs and does not  
            consider any savings or benefits derived from clean technology  
            investments and innovation.  The study also appears to  
            overestimate the exposure of the average business to the costs  
            it attributes to AB 32.  So it seems the study overstates  








                                                                  AB 118
                                                                  Page  3

            costs and understates benefits in formulating its dramatic  
            cost estimates.

           3)Would this bill produce the intended effect?   It's not clear  
            that this bill, if enacted, would actually sidetrack the  
            implementation of regulations to reduce GHG emissions, as  
            apparently intended.  Many of the measures identified by ARB  
            to achieve the GHG reductions AB 32 calls for have been  
            developed pursuant to laws separate from AB 32 that would not  
            be suspended under this bill.  This includes the three largest  
            measures identified by ARB, which account for nearly half the  
            total GHG reductions necessary to achieve AB 32's 2020 limit  
            (vehicle GHG standards, increased energy efficiency, and the  
            renewable portfolio standard).

           4)AB 32 already contains an administrative "safety valve."   The  
            same Governor who would have to sign this bill if passed by  
            the Legislature, already has general emergency powers under  
            the Emergency Services Act and specific authority under AB 32  
            to suspend implementation of regulations if circumstances  
            warrant.

           REGISTERED SUPPORT / OPPOSITION  :   

           Support 
           
          Southern California Contractors Association

           Opposition 
           
          American Lung Association of California
          Audubon California 
          California League of Conservation Voters
          Defenders of Wildlife
          Ella Baker Center for Human Rights
          Nature Conservancy
          Natural Resources Defense Council
          Planning and Conservation League
          Sierra Club California
          Union of Concerned Scientists
           

          Analysis Prepared by  :  Lawrence Lingbloom / NAT. RES. / (916)  
          319-2092