BILL ANALYSIS                                                                                                                                                                                                    



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          ASSEMBLY THIRD READING
          AB 1504 (Skinner)
          As Amended  January 13, 2010
          Majority vote 

           NATURAL RESOURCES   6-2         APPROPRIATIONS      12-5        
           
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          |Ayes:|Skinner, Brownley,        |Ayes:|De Leon, Ammiano,         |
          |     |Chesbro,                  |     |Bradford, Charles         |
          |     |De Leon, Hill, Huffman    |     |Calderon, Coto, Davis,    |
          |     |                          |     |Fuentes, Hall, John A.    |
          |     |                          |     |Perez, Skinner, Solorio,  |
          |     |                          |     |Torlakson                 |
          |     |                          |     |                          |
          |-----+--------------------------+-----+--------------------------|
          |Nays:|Gilmore, Knight           |Nays:|Conway, Harkey, Miller,   |
          |     |                          |     |Nielsen Audra Strickland  |
           ----------------------------------------------------------------- 
           
          SUMMARY  :  Requires the California Department of Forestry and  
          Fire Protection (CDF, or CALFIRE), in consultation with the Air  
          Resources Board (ARB), by March 1, 2011, to assess the capacity  
          of its forest and rangeland regulations to meet or exceed the  
          state's greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction  goals, pursuant to the  
          California Global Warming Solutions Act of 2006 (AB 32).   
          Specifically,  this bill  :

          1)By March 1, 2011, requires CDF, in consultation with ARB, to  
            assess the capacity of its forest and rangeland regulations  
            and non-regulatory forestry programs to meet or exceed the  
            state's GHG reduction goals.  At a minimum, CDF must consider:

             a)   Whether relevant statutory or regulatory requirements  
               governing a timber harvesting plan, sustained yield plan or  
               its equivalent, non-industrial timber management plan, or  
               any other discretionary approval for timber harvesting are  
               sufficient to ensure a net reduction or sequestration of  
               carbon emissions from primary forest carbon sources, sinks  
               or reservoirs;

             b)   Whether regulations governing conversion of timberland  
               and forestland, as defined, to non-timber and non-forest  
               uses are sufficient to offset lost sequestration capacity  








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               and carbon emissions associated with the non-timber use;  
               and,

             c)   Whether forest growth, harvest and conversion  
               information obtained through CDF's regulatory and  
               non-regulatory programs and other local, state and federal  
               sources is sufficient and reliable to track changes in  
               carbon stocks, including net emissions and reductions,  
               across the state's forested landscape.

          2)By December 1, 2010, CDF must publish a draft assessment,  
            including any recommendations, for a 30-day public review and  
            comment period.

          3)Requires ARB, in consultation with CDF, to convene an  
            independent panel of no less than three qualified experts to  
            peer-review the draft assessment.  At least two experts shall  
            be selected from academia.  CDF must incorporate the panel's  
            findings or recommendations or describe in writing the  
            reasons, based on substantial evidence, for rejecting a  
            finding or recommendation.

          4)Defines "net reduction or sequestration of carbon emissions"  
            to mean an increase in carbon stocks over time of a primary  
            forest carbon source, sink or reservoir compared to a  
            baseline.

          5)Defines "primary forest carbon source, sink or reservoir" to  
            include standing live or dead trees, soil, shrubs and  
            herbaceous understory, lying dead wood, litter, duff, and  
            forest products.

          6)Is contingent upon receipt of sufficient funding from the ARB  
            pursuant to its AB 32 fee revenue authority or any other  
            public or private source.


           EXISTING LAW  :

          1)Requires ARB, pursuant to AB 32, to adopt a statewide GHG  
            emissions limit equivalent to 1990 levels by 2020 and adopt  
            regulations to achieve maximum technologically feasible and  
            cost-effective GHG emission reductions.  ARB is required to  
            adopt and update every five years a scoping plan for achieving  








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            these reductions from sources or categories of sources.

          2)Requires CDF, pursuant to the Z'berg-Nejedly Forest Practice  
            Act (Act) of 1973, to create and maintain a comprehensive  
            system of regulation of all timberlands to assure that: where  
            feasible, the productivity of timberlands is restored,  
            enhanced, and maintained and; the goal of maximum sustained  
            yield of high-quality timber products is achieved while giving  
            consideration to values relating to recreation, watershed,  
            wildlife, range and forage, fisheries, regional economic  
            vitality, employment, and aesthetic enjoyment.

           FISCAL EFFECT  :  According to the Assembly Appropriations  
          Committee, moderate one-time special-fund costs during 2009-10  
          and 2010-11, in the range of $200,000 to $400,000, to the extent  
          funding is available.  This measure is contingent upon CDF's  
          receipt of funds sufficient to cover the costs of the assessment  
          from the ARB's AB 32 fee revenue or from another public or  
          private source.  CDF has indicated that costs would be  
          absorbable given its commitment to the Interagency Forestry  
          Working Group to prepare the assessment (see below).


           COMMENTS  :

          1)According to the author's office, this bill is necessary to  
            ensure that CDF's assessment is completed in a timely manner,  
            and to ensure that it reflects the most defensible science on  
            carbon sequestration and forestry practices.  The bill  
            essentially codifies Task #2 of the Interagency Forestry  
            Working Group (IFWG), established in December 2008 by the  
            Natural Resources Agency, California Environmental Protection  
            Agency, and ARB as the official forestry subgroup of the  
            Climate Action Team to provide guidance on all forest-related  
            climate strategies and policies.  The IRWG proposed Task #2  
            (in addition to 3 other tasks) on May 6, 2009 and set a  
            completion date of November 2009.  However, presumably due to  
            resource constraints, including state employee furloughs, this  
            deadline was not met.  On November 24, the IFWG outlined a  
            work plan for Task #2 though it did not include any timeline  
            for completion.

            At the same time, but in a different venue, CDF appears to  
            have already answered the questions posed by Task #2.  In a  








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            November 12, 2009 memo, responding to concerns raised by the  
            Department of Fish Game regarding the climate impacts of a  
            non-industrial timber management plan (NTMP), CDF concludes,  
            without any supporting documentation, that "?the provisions of  
            the [Forest Practices Act] and [Forest Practice Rules] while  
            not specifically targeted to address GHG relationships will  
            support the targets for the Forest Sector" identified in the  
            Scoping Plan.  While the NTMP itself may, in fact, mitigate or  
            offset carbon emissions associated with timber harvesting, CDF  
            extrapolates this conclusion, without substantiation, across  
            its entire regulatory program.  The Board of Forestry's (BOF)  
            2008 AB 32 Strategic Plan to ARB essentially reaches the same  
            conclusion, again, without any supporting evidence.  This  
            raises the concern that CDF may not be in the best position to  
            complete the above assessment objectively.

          2)According to the Scoping Plan, California's forests currently  
            sequester approximately 5 million metric tons (MMT) of carbon  
            dioxide annually.  This means that the atmospheric uptake and  
            sequestration of carbon from forest growth is greater than  
            emissions from fires, harvesting, land conversion, and  
            decomposition.  There were significant limitations (e.g.,  
            temporal, spatial, and methodological), however, to the study  
            that formed the basis for the above sequestration rate so ARB  
            is planning on updating its assessment by winter 2010.   
            Nonetheless, the Scoping Plan tasks CDF and BOF with  
            evaluating how its current regulations and programs will  
            continue to achieve the 5 MMT target by 2020 (Task #2).  Since  
            the conversion of timberland and forestland (a broader  
            category) to non-timber and non-forest land uses is one threat  
            to the maintenance of this target, the Scoping Plan also  
            suggests that regulatory changes could dissuade conversion or  
            require mitigation for the lost sequestration capacity.  From  
            1999 to 2008, about 1,500 acres of timberland per year have  
            been converted to non-timber uses.

            CDF is just beginning to determine how it will implement Task  
            #2.  Possible options include a top-down approach, comparing  
            carbon inventory trends longitudinally and retrospectively  
            teasing out possible explanations for this trend, or a  
            risk-based approach, assessing the capacity of its rules or  
            programs to mitigate threats (e.g., wildfires, conversions) to  
            carbon stocks.  There are many existing forest practice rules  
            that, on a project-by-project basis, may have the effect of  








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            offsetting overall carbon emissions (e.g., streamside buffer  
            or retention rules) or contributing to emissions (e.g., rules  
            that permit the harvesting of old-growth or older trees).   
            However, these rules were not developed with carbon  
            sequestration in mind so the challenge is to determine which  
            rules have the incidental benefit of increased carbon storage  
            and whether new rules or amendments are necessary to increase  
            storage or mitigate emissions in order to meet or maintain the  
            Scoping Plan target.  

           3)Pursuant to its responsibilities under the California  
            Environmental Quality Act, CDF is requiring large landowners  
            (greater than 50,000 acres) to analyze the GHG impacts of  
            their preferred timber harvest management regimes across their  
            entire ownership.  These landowners are currently required to  
            demonstrate, through a sustained yield plan (SYP), "maximum  
            sustained production" of high-quality timber products,  
            balancing growth and harvest over a 100-year planning horizon.  
             A SYP describes a landowner's management regime, and proposed  
            growth and harvest rates, and contains environmental analysis  
            of this regime on a programmatic scale.

            CDF has stated that "if the GHG analysis is included as part  
            of the overall management regime for the ownership, individual  
            [timber harvest plans] will not be required to specifically  
            address GHG relationships other than to demonstrate  
            consistency with the management regime." CDF has also found  
            that its "?review of approved [SYP] documents for larger  
            landowners in the state indicates that at the end of the  
            100-year planning horizon?the total inventory and growth will  
            exceed existing inventory and growth levels." Together with  
            the assertion that carbon post-harvest continues to be  
            sequestered in wood products or landfills and the assumption  
            that use of wood products displaces use of non-wood building  
            materials, CDF has concluded that, despite the lack of a  
            threshold of significance, the impacts of carbon emissions are  
            not significant and thus, no mitigation is necessary.

          4)Forests both store and release carbon.  Through  
            photosynthesis, carbon dioxide is absorbed from the atmosphere  
            and stored aboveground (in trees, understory vegetation, lying  
            dead wood, litter, duff) and belowground (soil, roots).  Older  
            trees inherently store more carbon than younger trees.  Carbon  
            stored in soils is a large, stable pool, accounting for 50-60%  








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            of total forest carbon in temperate forests.  When trees or  
            understory plants die, some carbon is stored as dead biomass  
            or transformed to soil carbon via decomposition.  Soil carbon  
            itself decomposes slowly and can accumulate at high rates.

            The above context illustrates the fact that forests are  
            biological systems, and as such are, according to Mark Harmon,  
            a professor of forest science at Oregon State University,  
            "leaky."  Carbon comes into the system via photosynthesis but  
            goes out via respiration, decomposition, combustion, leaching,  
            and erosion.  A leaky system can store carbon but the amount  
            it can store is dependent on the rate of input relative to the  
            rate of output.  As an analogy, a bucket with leaks can store  
            water only if it receives a constant input; the larger the  
            leaks, the less water stored regardless of the rate of inflow.

            A disturbance to this system, whether caused by humans or  
            nature, influences this carbon balance in several respects.  A  
            wildfire, for example, directly releases carbon to the  
            atmosphere while also converting living biomass to dead  
            biomass.  When trees are harvested, carbon (roughly 20-33%) is  
            transferred to wood products, emitted from decaying stumps and  
            slash (branches, leaf litter, etc.), soil, and combustion from  
            burning the site or slash in preparation for re-planting.   
            Some carbon also remains on-site.  A disturbance temporarily  
            (years to decades) reduces photosynthesis given the time it  
            takes to restore the photosynthetic capacity of forests.   
            According to Mr. Harmon, the effect of a disturbance depends  
            on the frequency and severity of the disturbance; more  
            frequent disturbances remove more carbon, storing less of it  
            in forests, on average.  In effect, increasing the disturbance  
            severity increases the size of the leaks in the bucket.

          5)In testimony before Congress last year, Dr. Harmon articulated  
            a number of principles that he believes should frame any  
            analysis of carbon and forests:  

          a)All relevant carbon pools need to be included: in other words,  
            all possible sources (soil, dead biomass, live plants) of  
            leaks in the bucket should be considered; related to this is  
            changes in or transfers from these pools for a total  
            accounting;

          b)Any analysis should specify the start and end points or  








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            account for the baseline carbon when assessing the impacts of  
            a particular disturbance or project.  An afforestation project  
            on marginal agricultural land will store more carbon compared  
            to the same project established by converting an old-growth  
            forest;

          c)Actions to increase carbon stores can take decades to have a  
            positive effect.  As mentioned above, it can take decades for  
            a forest to reach its full capacity;

          d)From a carbon-perspective, forests are potentially renewable  
            if the regeneration rate equals the removal rate.  Removal of  
            trees, of course, can affect carbon pools other than trees and  
            these can decline when trees are harvested;

          e)Forests systems have feedbacks which can strongly influence  
            the carbon balance.  Increasing the growth rate of trees can  
            lead to high carbon stores but a larger tree also means more  
            plant material will die and decompose (and release carbon).   
            Also, if we are in fact experiencing more frequent and severe  
            fires, this increase cannot happen indefinitely because more  
            frequent fires will eventually lower fuel loads; and,

          f)Finally, one must examine the whole forest over time, not a  
            single point in time, when assessing a policy's carbon  
            effects.  While a young forest removes more carbon in a course  
            of a year than an older forest, only comparing the relative  
            sequestration rates for this one year is misleading.  When  
            comparing the average carbon stores of a young and older  
            forest, it is the latter forest that will store more carbon.

          1)SB 144 (Pavley), which has been referred to this committee,  
            requires CDF, among other things, to develop options and  
            incentives for the conservation and management of private  
            forest lands, establish scientific, standardized carbon  
            baselines to project future emission and sequestration  
            scenarios, and develop regulations to mitigate the  
            sequestration impacts of forestland conversions.

           
          Analysis Prepared by  :  Dan Chia / NAT. RES. / (916) 319-2092











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