BILL ANALYSIS                                                                                                                                                                                                    



                                                                SB 295
                                                                       

                      SENATE COMMITTEE ON ENVIRONMENTAL QUALITY
                        Senator S. Joseph Simitian, Chairman
                              2009-2010 Regular Session
                                           
           BILL NO:    SB 295
           AUTHOR:     Dutton
           AMENDED:    May 13, 2009
           FISCAL:     Yes               HEARING DATE:     May 20, 2009
           URGENCY:    Yes               CONSULTANT:       Randy Pestor
            
           SUBJECT  :    CLIMATE CHANGE

            SUMMARY  :    
           
            Existing law  , under the California Global Warming Solutions  
           Act of 2006 (CGWSA):

           1) Requires the California Air Resources Board (ARB) to  
              determine the 1990 statewide greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions  
              level and approve a statewide GHG emissions limit that is  
              equivalent to that level, to be achieved by 2020.  ARB must  
              adopt regulations for reporting and verification of GHG  
              emissions, monitoring and compliance with the program, and  
              achieving GHG emission reductions from sources or  
              categories of sources by January 1, 2011 to be operative on  
              January 1, 2012, subject to certain requirements.  (Health  
              and Safety Code 38500 et seq.).

           2) Requires ARB to prepare and approve a scoping plan for  
              achieving the maximum technologically feasible and  
              cost-effective reductions in GHG emissions from sources or  
              categories of sources of GHGs by 2020.  ARB must evaluate  
              the total potential costs and total potential economic and  
              noneconomic benefits of the plan for reducing GHGs to the  
              state's economy, and public health, using the best economic  
              models, emission estimation techniques, and other  
              scientific methods.  The plan must be updated at least once  
              every five years.  (38561).

           3) Authorizes the ARB to adopt GHG emission limits or emission  
              reduction measures prior to January 1, 2011, imposing those  
              limits or measures prior to January 1, 2012, or providing  
              early reduction credit where appropriate.  (38563).









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           4) Authorizes the Governor to adjust applicable deadlines for  
              regulations to the earliest feasible date after that  
              deadline in the event of extraordinary circumstances,  
              catastrophic events, or threat of significant harm.  Within  
              10 days of invoking the adjustment period, the Governor  
              must provide written notification to the Legislature.   
              (38599).

            This bill  :

           1) Requires ARB to complete an additional peer-reviewed study  
              to reevaluate the evaluations made regarding the potential  
              economic and noneconomic benefits of the plan for reducing  
              GHGs, considering any peer-reviewed comments on the  
              original evaluations.  The additional study must include  
              certain matters (e.g., estimated annual actual costs of  
              recommendations and not averaged costs, estimates of  
              overall costs and savings and the cost-effectiveness of  
              identified reductions in GHG emissions, estimates of  
              capital investment timing, sensitivity of results to  
              changes in key inputs, small business impact, current state  
              of California economy).

           2) Requires ARB to provide the study to the Legislature by  
              October 1, 2009.

           3) Requires ARB to report to the Legislature by November 1,  
              2009, on whether the analysis has led or will lead to  
              scoping plan changes, including changes in the mix of plan  
              measures.  ARB must also include recommended timeline  
              changes if the analysis makes timeline changes advisable or  
              necessary.  This provision does not authorize ARB to adjust  
              any timelines.

           4) Requires the Legislative Analyst's Office (LAO) to review  
              the ARB study and report to the Legislature by December 1,  
              2009, on:  a) a critique of the adequacy of the ARB  
              economic impact analysis supporting the scoping plan  
              measures and reasonableness of conclusions, b) scoping  
              measures lacking supporting economic analysis, and c) an  
              evaluation whether ARB has complied with the above ARB  
              requirements.  The LAO may provide any analysis or  
              information in addition to these matters, and ARB must  
              provide the LAO information necessary to complete the  








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              review in the timeframe provided. 

            COMMENTS  :

            1) Purpose of Bill  .  According to the author, "It is in the  
              best interest of both the economy and the environment to  
              implement AB 32 in the most cost-effective way possible.   
              Without a sound analysis, the Legislature and other policy  
              makers cannot ensure that AB 32 will be implemented in a  
              cost-effective manner.  [ARB] has already agreed to re-do  
              its economic analysis this year; this bill would simply  
              ensure that the analysis is thorough, peer reviewed and  
              evaluated by the LAO."
            
           In response to these concerns, SB 295 requires an additional  
              ARB peer-reviewed study followed by LAO review of the  
              study.

           The Committee heard the April 13, 2009, version of this bill  
              April 20, 2009, which among other things prohibited ARB  
              from beginning to develop regulations to achieve GHG  
              emission reductions until certain ARB studies are complete  
              and the state unemployment rate is below 5.8% for 3  
              consecutive months.  The bill was subsequently amended to  
              strike the provision prohibiting development of  
              regulations, while revising the ARB study requirements and  
              LAO review procedures, and requiring ARB to include  
              recommended changes to the CGWSA timelines if the analysis  
              makes the changes advisable or necessary (ARB cannot adjust  
              any timelines pursuant to this provision).

            2) Addressing climate change  .  Climate change refers to  
              long-term changes in temperature, precipitation, wind  
              patterns and other parts of earth's climate system.  The  
              Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) defines  
              climate change as "any change in climate over time, whether  
              due to natural variability or as a result of human  
              activity."  For some time, scientific research increasingly  
              attributes these climate changes to GHGs, especially those  
              generated from use of fossil fuels.  Scientists indicate  
              that the earth is warming faster than any time in the  
              previous 1,000 years, and the 10 warmest years of the last  
              century occurred in the last 15 years.  A rise in  
              temperature accompanied by climate change affects how  








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              organisms live, adapt, and survive.

           AB 4420 (Sher) Chapter 1506, Statutes of 1988, required the  
              State Energy Resources Conservation and Development  
              Commission (CEC), in consultation with certain entities, to  
              conduct a study and report to the Legislature and the  
              Governor by June 1, 1990, on how climate change may affect  
              the state's energy supply and demand, economy, environment,  
              agriculture, and water supplies.  The study also required  
              recommendations for avoiding, reducing, and addressing  
              related impacts - and required the CEC to coordinate the  
              study and any research with federal, state, academic, and  
              industry research projects.

           AB 4420 led to two reports:  "The Impacts of Global Warming on  
              California" (1989) and "Climate Change Potential Impacts  
              and Policy Recommendations" (1991).  According to the  
              state's Climate Action Team, "The political discussion  
              generated from these reports helped pave the way for  
              implementation of policies to address climate change."

           SB 1771 (Sher) Chapter 1018, Statutes of 2000, required the  
              Secretary of the Resources Agency to establish the  
              California Climate Change Registry.  SB 1771 also required  
              the CEC, in consultation with certain entities, to update  
              the GHG emissions inventory and to develop data and  
              information on climate change - and to provide certain  
              entities and interest groups with information on the costs,  
              technical feasibility, and demonstrated effectiveness of  
              methods for reducing or mitigating production of GHGs from  
              in-state sources.  SB 1771 required the inventory to be  
              updated every five years.  SB 527 (Sher) Chapter 769,  
              Statutes of 2001, revised certain California Climate Change  
              Registry responsibilities.

           Governor Schwarzenegger issued Executive Order (EO) S-3-05  
              June 1, 2005, to establish emission reduction targets for  
              the state, require the Secretary for Environmental  
              Protection to coordinate oversight efforts with certain  
              other entities to meet the targets, and set various  
              reporting requirements.

           AB 32 (Nunez/Pavley) Chapter 488, Statutes of 2006, requires  
              the ARB to determine the 1990 statewide greenhouse gas  








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              (GHG) emissions level and approve a statewide GHG emissions  
              limit that is equivalent to that level, to be achieved by  
              2020 - and sets related requirements (see Summary above). 
            
           In implementing AB 32, ARB adopted the first list of early  
              action measures June 21, 2007, and adopted an augmented  
              list of early action measures October 25, 2007.  Mandatory  
              reporting regulations for GHGs were adopted and the 2020  
              GHG emissions target were set December 6, 2007.  The  
              Scoping Plan was adopted December 12, 2008, and ARB  
              rulemaking continues in 2009 and 2010.  First early action  
              measures take effect January 1, 2010, major GHG reduction  
              rulemaking concludes January 1, 2011, with rules taking  
              effect January 1, 2012.

            3) Scoping Plan analysis  .  Assemblymembers Niello and Villines  
              have raised concerns regarding the AB 32 Scoping Plan and  
              economic analysis of that plan to the LAO.  In a March 9,  
              2009, report to the Assembly Natural Resources Committee,  
              the LAO outlined concerns regarding:  a) inconsistent and  
              incomplete evaluation of costs and savings, b) a lack of  
              analytical rigor in macroeconomic modeling, c) a limited  
              role of economic analysis in scoping plan development, and  
              d) failure to lay out an "investment pathway."

           The LAO recommended:  a) legislative oversight "to ensure that  
              AB 32 is implemented cost-effectively and efficiently, and  
              that the gaps and weaknesses in the economic analysis that  
              we have identified are addressed;" b) ARB take advantage of  
              its economic analysis and modeling "to inform the make-up  
              of the scoping plan in terms of the mix of measures and  
              relative importance of particular measures;" and c) the  
              Legislature "provide policy direction on the use of  
              market-based compliance mechanisms."

            4) ARB response to SB 295  .  According to the ARB, LAO and  
              formal peer review process critiques "raised a number of  
              legitimate issues in terms of alternative approaches that  
              could have been taken in terms of both the assumptions and  
              analysis.  Some of the criticism, especially from LAO, also  
              highlighted to us that we had not done an adequate job in  
              explaining our assumptions and approach to the work we did.  
               We do not claim that the assumptions we used were the only  
              reasonable assumptions possible - no one conducting  








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              economic analysis should ever make such a claim - but we do  
              believe that our assumptions provided a solid basis for  
              analyzing the long-term macroeconomic effects of  
              implementing the Scoping Plan."

           ARB also notes that it "stands behind its economic analysis  
              work done on economic analysis of the Scoping Plan which  
              provided the Board the information it needed on the impacts  
              of the broad roadmap for implementing AB 32.  ARB faced a  
              legislative deadline of January 1, 2009, to adopt the Plan.  
               Had the Board believed it lacked the basis to adopt the  
              Plan, ARB would have asked for more time.  However, ARB  
              determined that California was better served by adopting  
              the Plan and committing to develop more complete  
              information and thorough analysis during the Plan's  
              implementation."

           ARB cites its additional efforts regarding modeling tools,  
              small business impacts, sensitivity analysis, and economic  
              analysis related to individual regulations and  
              nonregulatory measures, and notes that it is "closely  
              monitoring the scientific basis for climate action and  
              finds good reason not to delay but to accelerate the  
              process of developing and implementing GHG control  
              measures.  ARB's Research Division is tasked with tracking  
              scientific investigations and literature on climate change  
              worldwide, and the most recent findings indicate the need  
              for even greater, not less, expedience and leadership in  
              reducing GHGs.  Many of the anthropogenic compounds  
              contributing to global warming are now well understood to  
              persist for decades or centuries in the atmosphere.  The  
              globally gathered evidence of elevated temperatures and  
              consequent effects on ecosystems and the biosphere  
              continues to increase."

            5) Costs of inaction  .  While SB 295 no longer prohibits  
              development of CGWSA regulations until certain conditions  
              are met, this bill does require ARB to include recommended  
              changes to the CGWSA timelines if the analysis makes the  
              changes advisable or necessary.

           Delays in acting on climate change can also result in costs.   
              A recent Climate Action Team (CAT) draft assessment on  
              climate change provides analyses on climate change impacts  








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              relating to various matters, such as warming trends,  
              precipitation, sea-level rise, agriculture, forestry, water  
              resources, and public health.

           For example, regarding sea level rise the report notes that  
              "Sea level measured over several decades at California tide  
              gage stations has risen at a rate of about 17 cm (7 inches)  
              per century.  The sea-level rise projections in the 2008  
              Impacts Assessment indicate that the rate and total  
              sea-level rise in future decades may increase substantially  
              above the recent historical rates.  The 2008 estimates  
              represent a significant departure from those in the 2006  
              CAT report."  According to the report, "By 2050, sea-level  
              rise could range from 30 to 45 cm (11 to 18 inches) higher  
              than in 2000, and by 2100, sea-level rise could be 60 to  
              140 cm (23 to 55 inches) higher than in 2000.  As sea level  
              rises, there will be an increased rate of extreme high  
              sealevel events, which can occur when high tides coincide  
              with winter storms and their associated high wind wave and  
              beach run-up conditions.  The draft CAT report notes that  
              "analysis reveals that $100 billion of property and 475,000  
              people are located in Bay and open coast areas vulnerable  
              to inundation in 2099.  However, risk is not evenly  
              distributed among the counties in the San Francisco Bay,  
              with San Mateo and Alameda counties having 40 percent of  
              assets at risk, the greatest amount in the Bay Area.   
              Marin, Santa Clara, and San Francisco counties are also  
              exposed to a high degree of risk; exposure to risk in these  
              counties is higher than in all other counties along the  
              Pacific coast, with the exception of Orange County.   
              Exposure to risk in Sonoma and Napa counties is relatively  
              modest.  While all sectors are vulnerable to the impacts  
              from sea-level rise, 70 percent of all assets at risk are  
              residential, followed by the commercial sector with 20  
              percent.  In addition to buildings and their contents, a  
              wide range of other critical infrastructure, such as roads,  
              hospitals, schools, emergency facilities, water and  
              wastewater treatment plants, and others will also be at  
              increased risk of flooding.  Continued development in  
              vulnerable areas would put additional assets and people at  
              risk."

           If the Committee believes additional ARB analyses and LAO  
              review is necessary, as required by SB 295, and ARB  








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              subsequently determines that any timelines should be  
              extended or the SB 295 analysis results in any delays, then  
              this bill should also ensure that the 2020 deadline for  
              achieving the GHG emissions limit is not affected.

            6) Support and opposition concerns  .  According to the author  
              and sponsor, "California lawmakers drafted AB 32 with good  
              intentions, attempting to lower [GHG] emissions.  In  
              today's poor economic condition, the legislation will exact  
              damaging unintended consequences to the state's vulnerable  
              business community."  Other supporters generally cite  
              current economic conditions and the need for additional  
              economic analysis of AB 32 measures.  According to San  
              Bernardino County, "With the current recession deepening  
              and many of the engines and people of our economy  
              struggling, it is the Board's position that now is not the  
              time to force new regulations that can exacerbate the  
              problems of a recessionary period through higher compliance  
              costs."  CalChamber believes additional economic analysis  
              should guide ARB, but does not want delays in  
              implementation of AB 32.

           In opposing SB 295, the Planning and Conservation League (PCL)  
              notes that "California's plan to reduce [GHG] emissions  
              pursuant to AB 32 is our most promising engine to  
              strengthen our economy by reducing energy consumption and  
              generating California-based jobs."  PCL cites an ARB  
              economic analysis showing "that AB 32 will boost the  
              state's economy by $27 billion and create 100,000 new jobs"  
              and a UC Berkeley economic analysis showing "AB 32 will  
              increase the Gross State Product (GSP) by about $76  
              billion, increase household incomes by up to $48 billion,  
              and create as many as 403,000 new energy efficiency and  
              climate driven jobs."  The California Teachers Association  
              notes the need to "finally address this serious problem  
              without further delay," and cites an "up-tick in the  
              economy with new 'green jobs.'"

            7) Clarification needed  .  A definition is needed for the term  
              "sector" (referenced on page 2, line 10).  This issue was  
              also raised with regard to SB 721 (Steinberg) and a  
              definition in SB 295 should mirror the term in SB 721 (See  
              SB 721 71407(d)(2) (page 11, lines 12 to 16; April 23,  
              2009, version) or reference sectors specified in the  








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              Scoping Plan Economic Analysis Supplement.

           SB 295 requires certain analysis for "at least five measures  
              in the scoping plan  . . . to which the scoping plan  
              assigns the highest target amount of [GHG] reductions."   
              This provision should specify the five measures to be  
              analyzed under this provision even if more measures were to  
              be analyzed.

            SOURCE  :        California Black Chamber of Commerce  

           Note:  Some support and opposition based on April 13, 2009  
           version.  
             
            SUPPORT  :       
           ACE Clearwater Enterprises
           Alvia Corporation
           Amcor PET Packaging
           American Chemistry Council
           American Coalition for Clean Coal Electricity
           American GI Forum of California
           BMB Construction Properties
           Baxter Healthcare Corporation
           Bell Gardens Chamber of Commerce
           Building Owners and Managers Association of California
           Bishop-Wisecarver Corporation
           Cal-Tax
           California Automotive Wholesalers Association
           California Business Properties Association
           California Chamber of Commerce
           California Construction and Industrial Materials Association
           California Forestry Association
           California Hispanic Chambers of Commerce
           California homebuilders represented by the California Building  
           Industry Association (CBIA)
           California Independent Petroleum Association
           California League of Food Processors
           California Manufacturers & Technology Association
           California Metals Coalition
           California Poultry Federation
           California Retailers Association
           California Small Business Alliance
           California Small Business Association
           California Taxpayers' Association








                                                                SB 295
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           California Trucking Association
           Carson Black Chamber of Commerce
           Caterpillar Inc.
           Chemical Industry Council of California
           Dairy Institute of California
           Dart Container Corporation
           Delta Computer Solutions, Inc.
           Delta Construction Co., Inc.
           Dow Chemical Company
           Duran HCP Inc.
           Fontana City Council
           Fountain Valley
           Glenn County Board of Supervisors
           Greater Corona Hispanic Chamber of Commerce
           Greater Los Angeles African American Chamber of Commerce
           Greater Riverside Chambers of Commerce
           Hispanic Chamber of Commerce Silicon Valley
           Homel Foods Corporation
           Industrial Association of Contra Costa
           Industrial Environmental Association
           International Council of Shopping Centers
           Inland Empire Division of the League of California Cities
           Johnson Controls
           Kern County Black Chamber of Commerce
           Laguna Hills
           Lake Arrowhead Communities Chamber of Commerce
           Lake Forest
           Lockheed Martin
           Manufacturers Council of the Central Valley
           MKP Environmental, LLC
           Metal Finishing Association of Northern California
           Metal Finishing Association of Southern California
           Milpitas Chamber of Commerce
           Murrieta
           Napa Chamber of Commerce
                      National Association of Industrial and Office Properties
           National Federation of Independent Business
           Orange County Board of Supervisors
           Orange County Division, League of California Cities
           Praxair Inc.
           PPG Industries, Inc.
           Printing Industries of California
           Rancho Cucamonga
           Regional Black Chamber of Commerce - Southern California








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           Regional Council of Rural Counties
           River Point Insurance Agency
           Sacramento Black Chamber of Commerce
           San Bernardino County Board of Supervisors
           San Mateo County Economic Development Association
           Santa Barbara County Taxpayers Association
           Santa Barbara Technology and Industry Association
           Santa Rosa Chamber of Commerce
           Shasta County Board of Supervisors
           Silicon Valley Black Chamber of Commerce
           Simi Valley Chamber of Commerce
           Solar Turbines
           Team Success Incorporated
           Town of Apple Valley
           Triche Entertainment
           Tustin City Council  
            USS-POSCO Industries
           Vulcan Materials Company
           Warren Consulting Group
           Weatherford
           Wellness Express Healthcare, Inc.
           Western State Petroleum Association
           Wincentive Corporation
           100 Black Men of the Bay Area
           17 Individuals
            
           Individuals/Organizations Support  
           Gary S. Anderson, Mayor Pro Tem, Sonora
           Joel Ayala, President & CEO, CA Hispanic Chamber of Commerce
           Tony Barba, Kings County Board of Supervisors
           Rubert Begun, Mayor & Council Member, Capitola
           Neil Blais, Rancho Santa Margarita City Council
           Anthony Botelho, San Benito County Board of Supervisors
           Cheryl Brothers, Fountain Valley City Council
           Howard Bush, President, Snap Educational Solutions
           Sandy Cajas, President, Regional Hispanic Chamber of Commerce,  
           Long Beach
           Susan Cash, Inyo County Board of Supervisors
           Bill Connelly, Butte County Board of Supervisors
           Earl "Skip" Cooper II, Black Business Association
           Bea Cortes, Councilwoman, Grand Terrace
           Jaime De La Cruz, San Benito County Board of Supervisors
           Murie Roberts De La Parra, CEO, BMB Construction Properties
           Ronn Dominici, Madera County Board of Supervisors








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           John Dale Dunn, MD JD, Texas
           Richard Fagundes, Kings County Board of Supervisors
           Joel Fox, President, Small Business Action Committee
           Frank Fry, Westminster City Council
           Ron Garcia, Mayor Pro-Tem, Brea
           Federal D. Glover, Supervisor, Contra Costa County
           Tara Lynn Gray, President & CEO, Yadari Enterprises
           Robert H. Griffin, CPA, William, Adley & Company LLP
           John Hernandez, Executive Director, Central California  
           Hispanic Chamber
           Aliek Hill III, President, DJN Entertainment
           Ken Hill, President, Richmond NAACP
           Jan Horton, Yorba Linda City Council
           Al Johnson, Director, LA County Department of Public Health
           Dean L. Jones, C.P.M., CEO, Southland Partnership Corporation
           Janice Keating, Councilmember, Modesto
           Donald J. Kurth, M.D., Mayor, City of Rancho Cucamonga
           Steve Lambert, Supervisor, District 4, Oroville
           Joel Lautenschleger, Mayor, City of Laguna Hills
           Don Maben, Kern County Supervisor
           Darlene Mar, Council of Asian American Business Associations
           Jere Melo, Council Member, Fort Bragg
           L. Dennis Michael, Mayor Pro Tem, Rancho Cucamonga
           Reb Monaco, San Benito County Board of Supervisors
           Earlene Morris, Bakersfield Black Chamber of Commerce
           Vern D. Moss, Madera County Board of Supervisors
           Scott Nassif, Mayor Pro Tem, Town of Apple Valley
           Michael Nelson, Merced County Board of Supervisors
           Joe Neves, Chairman, Kings County Board of Supervisors
           Steve Nolan, Mayor of Corona
           Ray Nutting, El Dorado County Board of Supervisors
           William O'Bryant, Councilmember, Modesto
           Tony Oliveira, Kings County Supervisor
           Kristin Olsen, Vice Mayor, Modesto
           John Pinches, Mendocino County Board of Supervisors
           John V. Pomierski, Mayor of Upland
           Eddie Price, President, San Diego Urban Economic Corporation
           Michael J. Reagan, Solano County Board of Supervisors
           Jim Reed, Vice Mayor, Scotts Valley
           James Ridenour, Mayor, City of Modesto
           Johnnie Roberts Jr., Ronald H. Brown Democratic Club
           Frank Scialdone, Fontana City Council
           Angela Scott-Ferrell, California Black Chamber of Commerce
           David A. Sheppard, Member, Sonora City Council & Past Mayor








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           Sam Spagnolo, Council Member, Rancho Cucamonga
           Russell L. Thomas, Chairman of the Board, Calaveras Board of  
           Supervisors
           Carol Lee Tolbert, Executive Director, Civic Pride
           John M. Vasquez, Solano County Board of Supervisors
           Acquanetta Warren, Mayor Pro Tem, City of Fontana
           Ray Watson, Kern County Board of Supervisors
           Daryle Whyte, Chairman of the Board, 100 Black Men of the Bay  
           Area
           Beverly Hamm Williams, L.A. Metro Publications, Inc.
           Kim K. Yamaguchi, Butte County Board of Supervisors
           Dennis R. Yates, Mayor of Chino

            OPPOSITION  : 
           Air Resources Board
           American Lung Association of California
           California Alliance for Retired Americans
           California League of Conservation Voters
           California Teachers Association
           Clean Power Campaign
           Coalition for Clean Air
           Environment California
           Environmental Defense Fund
           National Parks Conservation Association
           Planning and Conservation League
           Sierra Club California
           TransForm
           Union of Concerned Scientists