BILL ANALYSIS                                                                                                                                                                                                    �






           SENATE TRANSPORTATION & HOUSING COMMITTEE       BILL NO: SB 985
          SENATOR MARK DESAULNIER, CHAIRMAN              AUTHOR:  La Malfa
                                                         VERSION: 
          1/30/2012
          Analysis by:  Art Bauer                        FISCAL:  yes
          Hearing date:  April 17, 2012                      URGENCY: YES


          SUBJECT:

          High-speed rail bonds

          DESCRIPTION:

          This bill submits to the voters a proposition to suspend the 
          sale of bonds authorized by the Safe, Reliable High-Speed 
          Passenger Train Bond Act for the 21st Century (Proposition 1A), 
          which voters approved at the November 2008 general election. 

          ANALYSIS:

          The California High-Speed Rail Authority (HSRA) was created in 
          1996 to develop and implement inter-city high-speed rail service 
          that is fully coordinated with other public transportation 
          services.  Proposition 1A provides $9 billion for high-speed 
          rail and $950 million for intercity rail, commuter rail, and 
          urban rail services that connect to the high-speed rail service 
          (referred to as connectivity funds).  The bond funds are 
          required to be matched by the HSRA or an eligible local agency 
          dollar-for-dollar.  

          Proposition 1A divides the high-speed rail project into two 
          phases.  Phase one is from the San Francisco Transbay Terminal 
          to Anaheim via San Jose, Fresno, Bakersfield, and Los Angeles 
          Union Station.  Phase two is an extension from Los Angeles to 
          San Diego via the Inland Empire and an extension from Merced to 
          Sacramento.  The HSRA is currently focusing its efforts on 
          developing phase one.  In addition, Proposition 1A specifies 
          that the trains are required to have a maximum operating speed 
          of 220 miles per hour and travel between the Transbay Terminal 
          and Los Angeles in 2 hours and 40 minutes. 

          Existing law:

             1.   Authorizes the Treasurer to sell of $9.95 billion in 
               general obligation bonds of which 




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               $9 billion is for high-speed rail planning, engineering, 
               and construction, and $950 million is for connecting 
               conventional rail, including intercity rail, commuter rail, 
               and urban rail transit systems to the high-speed rail line. 


             2.   Requires the Legislature to appropriate bond proceeds. 

             3.   Authorizes the Legislature to appropriate the amount of 
               bond funds at less than the amount authorized in a voter 
               approved bond measure. 

             4.   Authorizes the Legislature to repeal a bond measure if 
               no bonds have been sold.




           This bill  :  
           
             1.   Requires the Secretary of State to put on the November 
               2012 general election ballot a legislative referendum 
               which, if approved by the voters, would prohibit the sale 
               of any additional high-speed rail bond bonds.

             2.   Authorizes the Legislature to appropriate any 
               outstanding net proceeds from sale of the bonds before the 
               enactment of this bill for retiring outstanding high-speed 
               rail bond debt.

             3.   Is an urgency measure.


          COMMENTS:

              1.   Purpose  . The purpose of this bill is to allow California 
               voters to reconsider their vote for Proposition 1A.  The 
               reason for this is because of the difficulties the HSRA has 
               encountered in developing the project.  For example, the 
               financial plan and ridership forecasts have been called 
               into question, and the Authority's proposed alignments and 
               outreach efforts have aggravated rural communities in the 
               San Joaquin Valley and urban communities in both northern 
               and southern California.  Because of these difficulties 
               there has been an apparent shift in public support for the 
               project.  




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               In 2008, the state voters approved Proposition 1A by a 52.7 
               to a 47.3 percent margin. Public sentiment toward the 
               project appears to have shifted since 2008.  A December 
               2011 Field Poll found that 64 percent of the state's voters 
               favored another vote on the high-speed rail project.  The 
               poll also found that 64 percent of both those who voted in 
               favor of Proposition 1A and those who voted against it 
               favored another vote on the measure.  If another vote were 
               taken on Proposition 1A at the time of the survey, the poll 
               found that 59 percent of all voters would have voted 
               against the proposition.  For this reason, the author 
               believes California voters need another opportunity to 
               express themselves on the project at the polls. 

              2.   Initiative to repeal Proposition 1A  .  Senator La Malfa 
               and former Congressman George Radanovich are circulating an 
               initiative entitled "Stop the $100 billion Bullet Train to 
               Nowhere Act."  To qualify for the November 2012 general 
               election, initiative sponsors must submit 504,760 
               signatures by August 13, 2012.  This measure prohibits the 
               sale of any bonds authorized by Proposition 1A after the 
               passage of the initiative.  The initiative does not 
               prohibit the state from paying debt service on high-speed 
               rail bonds already sold.  SB 985 is identical to the 
               proposed initiative. 

              3.   Expenditures and funding for the high-speed rail 
               program  .  From its creation in 1996 through 2011-12, the 
               HSRA will have spent about $630 million from the following 
               funding sources:  Proposition 1A bond funds (about $400 
               million); federal funds (about $140 million); and various 
               state special funds and other bond funds (about $90 
               million). The proposition 1A revenue was augmented in 2009 
               when the HSRA received $3.3 billion in funding from the 
               federal American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA) and 
               other federal programs exclusively for capital outlay 
               purposes.  The HSRA can only use federal funds if the 
               Legislature appropriates approximately $2.3 billion of 
               Proposition 1A bond for matching purposes.

              4.   What is the high-speed rail program and cost  ?  Perhaps 
               the issue that may have most contributed to the erosion of 
               public support for the project is the variability of 
               project cost.  Two reasons for this are changes in costing 
               methodologies and in the concept of the project.  For 




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               example, in the ballot pamphlet describing Proposition 1A, 
               the Legislative Analyst, relying upon a 2006 HSRA cost 
               estimate, states that combined cost of phase one and phase 
               two was approximately $45 billion.  The 2008 business plan, 
               published just before the November election, put the cost 
               of phase one, San Francisco to Anaheim, at $33 billion in 
               2008 dollars. In 2009, the basis of calculating cost was 
               shifted to "year of construction dollars", a more realistic 
               estimating methodology.  This resulted in the cost 
               increasing to $43 billion for phase one.  Last November, 
               the draft 2012 business plan put the cost of phase one at 
               $98 billion.  This cost included trains capable of 
               operating up to 220 miles per hour and meeting the time 
               requirement of 2 hours and 40 minutes. 

               The draft revised 2012 business plan proposes to establish 
               a "road map" to achieving high-speed rail service in 
               California.  To this end it emphasizes making investments 
               in the urban areas, referred to as the "bookends," that are 
               compatible with future high-speed rail service.  It further 
               proposes to use existing rail infrastructure in the urban 
               areas and build dedicated high-speed rail infrastructure in 
               the San Joaquin Valley and through the Tehachapi Mountains. 
                Together this is referred to as a blended approach to 
               high-speed rail development.  The build-out cost from San 
               Francisco to Los Angeles is estimated to be $68.4 billion.  
               Because of this emphasis, this plan is very different than 
               the previous draft November business plan and the 2008 and 
               2009 business plans.  The three previous business plans 
               estimated the cost for phase one, Anaheim/Los Angeles to 
               the San Francisco Transbay Terminal.  In the April 
               revision, the cost is $30 billion less because emphasis is 
               on the blended plan with service operating between San 
               Francisco and Los Angeles Union Station.  The blended 
               approach minimizes the emphasis on a full build-out phase 
               one compliant plan.  The Proposition 1A compliant plan that 
               meets the 2 hours and 40 minute travel time between Los 
               Angeles and San Francisco is estimated to cost $91.4 
               billion, only $7 billion less that the November business 
               plan. 
                
              5.   Peer review committee report  .  The statutorily mandated 
               peer review committee report discusses a number of ways the 
               draft business plan and the related funding plan can be 
               improved.  The report concludes:  "Pending review of the 
               Final 2012 Business Plan and absent a clearer picture of 




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               where future funding is going to come from, the Peer Review 
               Group cannot at this time recommend the Legislature approve 
               the appropriation of bond proceeds for this project."  The 
               peer review committee has not yet issued a report on the 
               revised 2012 business plan. 

              6.   Impact of SB 985  . The HSRA writes in its opposition to 
               this bill that:

                    SB 985 would mean all the time, effort, and 
                    energy you put into helping shape this into an 
                    improved plan would be forfeited along with 
                    today's opportunity to build a high-speed rail 
                    system in California at current costs for 
                    securing right of way, building tracks, trains, 
                    and systems.  Foregoing the opportunity to 
                    proceed with High-Speed Rail now means any 
                    eventual high-speed rail connection through 
                    California will only be more difficult and more 
                    expensive due to the inevitable increase in costs 
                    as a result of inflation, population growth, and 
                    the potential requirement for rework of 
                    preliminary engineering and environmental work 
                    already completed by the HSRA. 

                     SB 985 will, of course, irretrievably forfeit 
                     the $3.5 billion in federal funds  awarded under 
                     the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 
                     2009 ('ARRA') and likely forfeit the possibility 
                     of any future federal funding for a high-speed 
                     rail system in California.  It will also 
                     eliminate the use of $950 million in state bond 
                     funds committed to integrate and 'interconnect' 
                     urban and regional rail systems into the 
                     High-Speed Rail project .  .  .

             7.   RELATED LEGISLATION.  Last year this committee 
               considered bill SB 22 (LaMalfa), which if enacted would 
               have prohibited the sale of high-speed rail bonds after 
               January 1, 2012.   The bill failed in committee on a vote 
               of 3-6.
               
               POSITIONS: (Communicated to the committee before noon on 
               Wednesday,                                        
                              April 11, 2012)





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               SUPPORT:  City of Palo Alto
                         Howard Jarvis Taxpayers Association

          
               OPPOSED:  Amalgamated Transit Union
                         California Conference of Operating Engineers
                         California High-Speed Rail Authority
                         California Labor Federation
                         California Teamsters Public Affairs Council
                         California Transit Association
                         Sierra Club California
                         State Building and Construction Trades of 
          California