BILL ANALYSIS                                                                                                                                                                                                    �



                                                                  AB 1763
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          ASSEMBLY THIRD READING
          AB 1763 (Perea)
          As Amended  May 5, 2014
          Majority vote 

           UTILITIES & COMMERCE            11-0                NATURAL  
          RESOURCES             8-0       
           
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          |Ayes:|Bradford, Patterson,      |Ayes:|Chesbro, Dahle, Bigelow,  |
          |     |Bonilla, Ch�vez, Dahle,   |     |Garcia, Muratsuchi,       |
          |     |Fong, Beth Gaines,        |     |Patterson, Stone,         |
          |     |Roger Hern�ndez, Mullin,  |     |Williams                  |
          |     |Quirk, Rendon             |     |                          |
          |-----+--------------------------+-----+--------------------------|
          |     |                          |     |                          |
           ----------------------------------------------------------------- 
           APPROPRIATIONS      16-0                                        
           
           ----------------------------------------------------------------- 
          |Ayes:|Gatto, Bigelow,           |     |                          |
          |     |Bocanegra, Bradford, Ian  |     |                          |
          |     |Calderon, Campos, Eggman, |     |                          |
          |     |Gomez, Holden, Jones,     |     |                          |
          |     |Linder, Pan, Quirk,       |     |                          |
          |     |Ridley-Thomas, Wagner,    |     |                          |
          |     |Weber                     |     |                          |
          |-----+--------------------------+-----+--------------------------|
          |     |                          |     |                          |
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           SUMMARY  :  Requires the California Energy Commission (CEC) to  
          prepare a state energy plan for 2030 and 2050. Specifically,  
           this bill  :  

          1)Requires the CEC to prepare a plan that assures its  
            electricity and transportation fuel needs will be met in 2030  
            and 2050, in a manner that complements the state's air  
            quality, water quality, climate change, energy efficiency, and  
            renewable energy resources goals as part of its November 2015  
            Integrated Energy Policy Report (IEPR).

          2)Requires the CEC to consider all of the following:

             a)   Energy forecasts based upon California's current and  








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               future energy supply mix forecast to 2030 and 2050.

             b)   An analysis of California's energy infrastructure needs,  
               including a review of current and new infrastructure needed  
               for an evolving supply mix forecast to 2030 and 2050.

             c)   Recommendations on ensuring long-term energy supply  
               reliability and affordability through 2030 and 2050.

          3)States that the report is intended to assist in establishing  
            state policy and does not independently change any statute,  
            regulation, or regulatory decision.

           FISCAL EFFECT  :  According to the Assembly Appropriations  
          Committee, absorbable costs for the CEC to add this plan to its  
          next scheduled IEPR

           COMMENTS  :   

          1)Author's Statement "Over the last fifteen years we have seen  
            major changes to California's energy system.  We have the most  
            progressive energy policies in the nation and have implemented  
            some of the most innovative environmental programs to help  
            curb carbon emissions and improve air quality. 

            "However, to stay on the forefront of energy policy, we must  
            have a focused energy plan to guide our policy-making moving  
            forward.  AB 1763 would require the creation of a plan that  
            will consider California's current and future energy supply  
            mix, infrastructure needs, and include recommendations to  
            ensure long-term supply reliability and affordability through  
            2030 and 2050. 

            "Balancing our current policies with our long-term needs and  
            ensuring all Californians, especially those in our  
            disadvantaged communities, have access to an affordable and  
            reliable energy supply will be a key component of this plan.   
            AB 1763 would not change any existing policy or regulation  
            currently in place, but would build from our current  
            understanding of energy policy to create a strategic energy  
            plan for the future."

          2)State Lacks Overarching Energy Plan  In 2013, the Little  
            Hoover Commission issued a report titled, Rewiring California:  








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             Integrating Agendas for Energy Reforms.  The key findings of  
            the report are:

             a)   "In a short period, the state has adopted a series of  
               transformative policy initiatives, any of which taken  
               individually would take years of careful planning to  
               implement. The policies were adopted one at a time without  
               the benefit of a cohesive design.  Now they are being  
               implemented simultaneously without an overarching plan."

             b)   "The state has not produced a comprehensive assessment  
               of the total cost of implementing this group of policies,  
               inhibiting consumers and businesses in their ability to  
               plan for this new future."

             c)   "The state lacks the ability to impose order on the  
               multitude of proceedings that determine how these policies  
               unfold, order which is essential to ensuring the state  
               maximizes progress toward each of its policies goals."

          1)Recent Assessment for Californians for Affordable Energy  
            (CARE) An August 2013 study by Navigant Consulting,  
            commissioned by CARE, states that: 

               Regulatory requirements to lower the carbon intensity  
               of fuels in California will also introduce  
               uncertainties associated with additional costs in the  
               production of transportation fuels, as well as the  
               associated costs of infrastructure development and/or  
               modifications needed for compliance. Specifically,  
               there are substantial levels of uncertainties  
               associated with:
                
                     The ability of industry to significantly reduce  
                 the carbon intensity ("CI") values of alternative  
                 fuels, and to produce, distribute, and dispense them  
                 at an adequate retail scale to support compliance  
                 consistent with the current Low Carbon Fuel Standard  
                 ("LCFS") compliance schedule; 

                     The ability of fuel providers to adapt to  
                 reduced demand for gasoline and diesel fuels; 
                     The pace at which California drivers will  
                 purchase and use flexible-fuel vehicles, and the  








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                 ability of industry to manufacture and integrate the  
                 needed engine technologies capable of running on  
                 alternative fuels; 

                     The rate at which compliance credits associated  
                 with alternative fuel consumption and sales can be  
                 generated to offset the deficits that will be  
                 incurred when consuming and selling (i.e. replacing)  
                 conventional gasoline and diesel; and
           
                     Overall economic impacts to the fuels industry.  

           
                The report goes on to review its preliminary examination of  
               potential cost impacts:

                     The 33% RPS [Renewable Portfolio Standard]  
                 requirement will likely lead to increased prices and  
                 rates as utilities attempt to incrementally phase  
                 renewable energy into their portfolios.  These  
                 incremental adjustments have already created  
                 challenges in the industry's ability to provide  
                 reliable electric service (e.g. integration;  
                 source-to-load transmission connections; etc.). 

                     Implementation has added to electricity prices  
                 attributable to the "carbon component" of energy  
                 costs.  The California Independent System Operator  
                 ("CAISO") has indicated that wholesale bids of  
                 gas-fired capacity in 2013 are reflecting the  
                 additional costs of carbon.  At current carbon  
                 prices, this can increase bids into the wholesale  
                 market between $6 and $10/MWh [Mega Watt hour],  
                 depending on the efficiency of the plant.  The  
                 impact that these carbon prices will have on  
                 electricity bills will differ for end-use consumers  
                 due to procedural rules regarding recycling of  
                 allowance auction revenue. 

                     The California Air Resources Board ("CARB") has  
                 assumed that full and rapid compliance with the LCFS  
                 will result in negligible increases in the price of  
                 gasoline and diesel.  However, there appears to be  
                 considerable uncertainty on the eventual cost  








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                 impacts as well as considerable litigation to date  
                 regarding the legality of the rule.  This is  
                 compounded by uncertainty regarding the potential  
                 supply of alternative fuels and associated  
                 infrastructure required for compliance."
           
           1)Related Legislation
           
             AB 1779 (Gaines) of the current legislative session, would  
            require the CEC to prepare a report that assesses the effect  
            in the aggregate of specified state policies on electricity  
            reliability and rates and whether these policies are achieving  
            the stated environmental and economic goals of these policies.  

             AB 1257 (Bocanegra), Chapter 749, Statutes of 2013, directed  
            the CEC to analyze natural gas use in the state.  The  
            legislation only focused on natural gas use and was not  
            directed at all energy sources.  

             SB 1389 (Bowen), Chapter 568, Statutes of 2002, consolidated  
            and updated the CEC's reporting requirements into one  
            integrated report and requires the reporting of the energy  
            data from all entities that participate in the state energy  
            markets.  
           
           
          Analysis Prepared by  :    Susan Kateley / U. & C. / (916)  
          319-2083 


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