BILL ANALYSIS                                                                                                                                                                                                    �






           SENATE TRANSPORTATION & HOUSING COMMITTEE       BILL NO: AB 1992
          SENATOR MARK DESAULNIER, CHAIRMAN              AUTHOR:  Quirk
                                                         VERSION: 6/5/14
          Analysis by:  Nathan Phillips                  FISCAL:  YES
          Hearing date:  June 26, 2014


          SUBJECT:

          Very low-carbon transportation fuels

          DESCRIPTION:

          This bill permits the California Air Resources Board (ARB) to  
          establish a very low-carbon fuel (VLCF) market program, in which  
          transportation fuel providers could be required to include in  
          their sales a specified percentage of VLCFs, defined as having  
          no greater than 50% the carbon intensity of the closest  
          comparable petroleum fuel. 

          ANALYSIS:

          AB 32

          State law assigns the ARB with primary responsibility for  
          implementing California's air quality and greenhouse gas (GHG)  
          emission policies.  State law gives ARB authority to control  
          mobile source air pollution, including the adoption of rules for  
          the reduction of harmful vehicle emissions and the specification  
          of vehicular fuel composition. In 2006, the Legislature passed  
          and the governor signed AB 32 (N��ez and Pavley), Chapter 488,  
          to establish a statewide GHG emissions limit such that by 2020  
          California shall reduce its GHG emissions to the level they were  
          at in 1990.

          AB 32 requires the ARB, among other things, to:

           Inventory GHG emissions in California.  (ARB's measurement  
            shows that transportation accounts for 38% of GHG emissions in  
            the state.)

           Implement regulations and impose fees that achieve the maximum  
            feasible and cost-effective reduction in GHG emissions.

           Identify and adopt regulations for discrete early actions to  
            reduce GHG emissions.




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          ARB has initiated multi-faceted GHG emissions strategies since  
          the 2006 enactment of AB 32. Those strategies combine  
          market-based regulatory approaches, other regulations, voluntary  
          measures, fees, policies, incentives, and programs, including  
          nine discrete early actions.

          Low-Carbon Fuel Standard

          In January 2007, Governor Schwarzenegger issued Executive Order  
          S-01-07, in which he ordered the establishment of a statewide  
          goal of reducing the carbon intensity of California's  
          transportation fuels by at least 10 percent by 2020 and ordered  
          ARB to establish a low-carbon fuel standard (LCFS) for the  
          state.  ARB adopted the LCFS regulation in April 2009, and it  
          took full effect a year later.  The LCFS consists of two  
          elements: a cap on total GHG emissions from the entire fuel  
          sector, and a carbon credit-trading mechanism that incentivizes  
          the production and use of low-carbon fuels.  

          ARB staff designed the LCFS to reduce GHG emissions by reducing  
          the carbon intensity (CI) of transportation fuels used in  
          California by an average of 10% by the year 2020.  CI is a  
          measure of the direct and indirect GHG emissions associated with  
          each of the steps in the full fuel-cycle of a transportation  
          fuel (also referred to as the "well-to-wheels" for fossil fuels,  
          or "seed or field-to-wheels" for biofuels).  The overall GHG  
          contribution from each particular step in the production and  
          delivery process is a function of the energy that step requires.  
           Thus, if a
          fuel that requires little energy to produce results in low  
          carbon emissions when consumed, but has to be trucked a long way  
          to market, it can still have a high fuel-cycle CI because of the  
          high energy requirements of getting it to market.

          The LCFS achieves a 10% reduction in average CI by establishing  
          an initial intensity level for specified providers of  
          transportation fuels ("regulated parties") and incrementally  
          lowering the allowable CI in each subsequent year.  For example,  
          modest targeted reductions of 0.5% and 1.0% are required for  
          2012 and 2013, respectively.  The reductions become more  
          substantial with each year, such that by 2020, the 10% average  
          reduction is achieved. This reduction makes room for low-CI  
          alternative fuels to enter the market.

          A regulated party's overall CI for its transportation fuels  




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          needs to meet each year's specified CI level target.  If the  
          reduction in intensity exceeds the target, the provider earns a  
          credit, which can be sold or carried forward.  The LCFS allows  
          fuels like electricity, hydrogen, and natural gas - which  
          already meet the CI standards through 2020 - to generate LCFS  
          credits that may be sold.

          Regulated fuel providers, therefore, can meet their annual CI  
          levels through several compliance strategies:

           Making low-GHG fuels, such as biofuels made from waste  
            products
           Carrying forward credits from previous years from their own  
            production process
           Buying credits from other fuel producers
           Reducing the amount of fuel they sell

          A fuel provider would meet the CI requirements of the LCFS if  
          the amount of credits at the end of the year is equal to, or  
          greater than, the deficits.  A provider determines its credits  
          and deficits based on the amount of fuel sold, the CI of the  
          fuel, and the efficiency by which a vehicle converts the fuel  
          into useable energy.  Fuel providers may retain and trade  
          credits so that they can meet their assigned obligations.

          Under the LCFS, a regulated party's compliance with the annual  
          CI requirements is based on end-of-year credit/deficit  
          balancing.

           This bill:
           
          1)Authorizes ARB to require transportation fuel suppliers to  
            include minimum percentages ranging from 0.25% to 2%, in  
            energy equivalent units, of VLCF
          2)Defines VLCF as fuel having a CI no greater than 50% of the  
            closest comparable petroleum fuel for that year, as measured  
            by the LCFS methodology

          3)Requires CI to include the indirect land-use emissions of GHGs  
            that result from changes in agricultural activity due to  
            production of VLCFs

          4)Provides that the bill shall become inoperative five years  
            after ARB determines that VLCFs have reached 2% of state  
            transportation fuel sales
          




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          COMMENTS:

           1.Purpose  .  This bill is intended to provide an initial stimulus  
            to make a VLCF market viable and self-sustaining in the face  
            of market uncertainty and barriers to entry.  By guaranteeing  
            a market share for very low-carbon fuels, the intent of this  
            bill is to encourage capital investments that allow  
            technologies to deploy at a scale that allows them to  
            establish, grow, and compete successfully within the broader  
            low-carbon fuels market.  

           2.How much of a production nudge is needed  ?  This bill specifies  
            a sales mandate of between 0.25% and 2.0% to stimulate the  
            VLCF market.  According to ARB, VLCFs have already achieved  
            0.95% of the total volume of fuels produced in the state in  
            2013, implying that sales of VLCF has already quadrupled the  
            lower limit of this bill's VLCF sales mandate.  This is not a  
            strictly correct comparison because the figure cited for 2013  
            is on a volume basis, whereas this bill specifies mandated  
            sales percentages on an energy-content basis.  Nevertheless,  
            considering the volumetric energy densities of biodiesel,  
            ethanol, and liquefied biomethane compared to gasoline, the  
            energy contribution of VLCFs may have already exceeded the  
            0.5% - 0.75% range, two to three times greater than the lower  
            sales limit specified in this bill.  According to ARB, the 2%  
            limit specified in this bill is likely to be achieved within  
            the next two years.  This raises a question of whether this  
            bill, with the percentages of VLCF sales as specified, is  
            necessary, and the degree to which existing incentives are  
            already stimulating a VLCF market in the way envisioned in  
            this bill.  

          3.Complications of LCF and VLCF regulation  .  Lawsuits are  
            complicating implementation of the LCFS program, even as it  
            has passed the halfway point of its period of effect.  This  
            makes for an uncertain time in which to introduce a new class  
            of low-carbon fuels.  Evidencing the potentially inconvenient  
            timing and complications presented by this bill, ARB has  
            recently proposed, in draft form, reformulated fuel pathways,  
            revisions, and re-arrangement of LCFS regulatory language.   
            Proposed draft LCFS reformulations include different tiers of  
            fuel pathways that cross-cut the VLCF categories proposed in  
            this bill.  Although the author has taken an amendment that  
            declares that provisions in this bill do not replace or modify  
            provisions of the LCFS, it is not clear how VLCFs can be  
            cleanly separated from their current and potentially changing  




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            role in the LCFS.  Moreover, should the LCFS be reformulated  
            based on responses to lawsuits or for other reasons, a VLCF  
            standard could potentially come into conflict or competition  
            with the LCFS.  

          4.Different technologies scale differently  .  Cellulosic biofuel,  
            biogas, and biodiesel are all VLCF candidates, but potentially  
            deploy successfully at different scales.  Biogas (refined as  
            bio-methane) and biodiesel tend to be more inherently scalable  
            technologies, partially because the feedstocks are diverse,  
            can be collected and aggregated from small to large scales,  
            and originate in and around population centers.  Cellulosic  
            biofuel production, on the other hand, requires a relatively  
            larger minimal scale to be economically and technically  
            viable, and a large agricultural setting.  Successful market  
            scalability may be achieved at lower levels of mandated  
            production for biogas or biodiesel than for cellulosic  
            biofuel.  This bill does not distinguish among VLCFs in this  
            respect, which may have the consequence of favoring more  
            inherently scalable VLCFs that least need the market  
            guarantee.  While policies that are agnostic in 'picking  
            winners' have merit, if the author's intent is to include  
            cellulosic biofuels among the VLCFs to be guaranteed market  
            entry, it may be necessary to spell out specific mandates for  
            that technology.

           5.Why isn't electricity a VLCF candidate  ?  This bill defines  
            VLCFs as "liquid or gaseous," but the ARB LCFS includes  
            electricity, raising a question of why electricity should not  
            be included in this bill as a candidate VLCF.  Moreover, the  
            author effectively invites electricity into consideration as a  
            VLCF by determining fuel amounts based not on volume, but on  
            energy-equivalent units, so that the CI associated with a  
            kW-hour of electrical energy can be directly compared with the  
            CI associated with an equivalent kW-hour of any other fuel.   
            Support letters for this bill from electric vehicle advocates  
            were contingent on an amendment (which was taken) to make  
            clear that this bill's provisions do not interfere with LCFS  
            regulations, and this support indicates that this bill does  
            not appear to undercut the state's incentives and promotion of  
            electricity as a vehicle fuel through its LCFS program.   
            However, to the degree electricity succeeds as a vehicle fuel,  
            it will tend to suppress the market share of this bill's  
            electricity-excluding VLCFs.  This bill asymmetrically  
            excludes electricity from consideration as a VLCF, while  
            implicitly including it in the total state vehicle fuel  




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            production that it seeks to penetrate.  

           6.Legislating regulation or legislative intention  ?  ARB, having  
            been granted broad authority by the Legislature, created the  
            LCFS as a regulation, and already has authority to include the  
            provisions of this bill within the LCFS, or to create the VLCF  
            program proposed in this bill.  This bill is thus not  
            necessary as a legislative directive.  However, that does not  
            mean that this bill is not beneficial as a statement of  
            legislative intent.  The bill's finding that existing  
            incentives have not resulted in sufficient development of LCFs  
            may have validity with respect to cellulosic ethanol  
            production, if not for the other VLCFs.  This bill may serve a  
            beneficial purpose in declaring the legislature's intent to  
            stimulate a broader class of VLCFs than are currently  
            succeeding under the existing LCFS.  

           7.Technical Amendment  .  By most definitions, including that of  
            the federal Energy Information Administration, petroleum is a  
            liquid fossil fuel.  This bill defines VLCFs in relation to  
            petroleum fuels, which is problematic for the consideration of  
            gaseous VLCFs.  The author may wish to amend this bill to  
            replace "petroleum" with "fossil." 
          
          Assembly Votes:

               Floor:                            47-26
               Appr:     12-5
               Nat Res:    5-3





















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          POSITIONS:  (Communicated to the committee before noon on  
          Monday, 
                      June 23, 2014.)

               SUPPORT:  California Biodiesel Alliance
                         California Electric Transportation Coalition
                         Clean Energy
                         The Coalition for Renewable Natural Gas
                         Environmental Defense Fund
                         Natural Resources Defense Council
                         Western States Petroleum Association

               OPPOSED:  California Manufacturers and Technology  
          Association
                         Western States Petroleum Association