BILL ANALYSIS                                                                                                                                                                                                    �



                                                                  AB 2050
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          ASSEMBLY THIRD READING
          AB 2050 (Quirk)
          As Amended  May 23, 2014
          Majority vote 

           NATURAL RESOURCES   5-1         APPROPRIATIONS      12-4        
           
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          |Ayes:|Chesbro, Garcia,          |Ayes:|Gatto, Bocanegra,         |
          |     |Muratsuchi, Stone,        |     |Bradford,                 |
          |     |Williams                  |     |Ian Calderon, Campos,     |
          |     |                          |     |Eggman, Gomez, Holden,    |
          |     |                          |     |Pan, Quirk,               |
          |     |                          |     |Ridley-Thomas, Weber      |
          |     |                          |     |                          |
          |-----+--------------------------+-----+--------------------------|
          |Nays:|Patterson                 |Nays:|Bigelow, Donnelly, Jones, |
          |     |                          |     |Wagner                    |
           ----------------------------------------------------------------- 
           SUMMARY  :  Requires the Air Resources Board (ARB) to include  
          specified items, including proposed greenhouse gas (GHG)  
          reduction goals for 2050, in the next AB 32 (N��ez), Chapter  
          488, Statutes of 2006, Scoping Plan Update and report to the  
          Legislature (2019).  Revises the composition and purpose of the  
          AB 32 Economic and Technology Advancement Advisory Committee  
          (ETAAC).  Specifically,  this bill  :  

           1)Requires ARB, on or before January 1, 2019, as part of the  
            Scoping Plan Update, to include:

             a)   A proposal for further reducing GHG emissions by 2050,  
               including intermediate goals.

             b)   An evaluation of these proposed goals based on what  
               technologies can be scaled to the rest of the country and  
               the world that assure cost-effectiveness and maintain local  
               and system-wide reliability.

             c)   Consistent metrics to accurately quantify GHG emissions  
               from technologies that are designed to reduce GHG emissions  
               and retrofits to existing technologies that increase  
               overall efficiency for the purposes of reducing their  
               carbon footprint.









                                                                  AB 2050
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          2)Requires ARB to submit the element above to the appropriate  
            committees of the Legislature.

          3)Requires ETAAC to include at least five, but no more than 10,  
            members who are experts in energy technology and economics.

          4)Authorizes ETAAC to conduct an economic assessment that  
            includes a marginal cost analysis of various strategies for  
            reducing GHG.

           EXISTING LAW  requires ARB, pursuant to the California Global  
          Warming Solutions Act of 2006 (AB 32), to: 

          1)Adopt a statewide GHG emissions limit equivalent to 1990  
            levels by 2020 and adopt regulations to achieve maximum  
            technologically feasible and cost-effective GHG emission  
            reductions.

          2)Prepare and approve a scoping plan, on or before January 1,  
            2009, and at once every five years thereafter, for achieving  
            the maximum technologically feasible and cost-effective  
            reductions in GHG emissions from sources or categories of  
            sources of GHGs by 2020.

          3)Appoint an ETAAC to advise on activities that will facilitate  
            investment in and implementation of technological research and  
            development opportunities, including, but not limited to,  
            identifying new technologies, research, demonstration  
            projects, funding opportunities, developing state, national,  
            and international partnerships and technology transfer  
            opportunities, and identifying and assessing research and  
            advanced technology investment and incentive opportunities  
            that will assist in the reduction of GHG emissions. 

           FISCAL EFFECT  :  According to the Assembly Appropriations  
          Committee:  

          1)Annual costs of up to $650,000 per year for 2015-16 and  
            2016-17, increasing to $1.1 million for 2017-18 and 2018-19,  
            for ARB to update the Scoping Plan and report to the  
            Legislature (Cost of Implementation Account); 

          2)Annual costs of $50,000 to $100,000 for four years to staff  
            the ETAAC (Cost of Implementation Account).








                                                                  AB 2050
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           COMMENTS  :  As part of AB 32's direction that ARB adopt a  
          statewide GHG emissions limit equivalent to 1990 levels by 2020  
          and adopt regulations to achieve maximum technologically  
          feasible and cost-effective GHG emission reductions, AB 32  
          requires ARB to prepare and approve a scoping plan at five-year  
          intervals.  

          The first AB 32 scoping plan, adopted by ARB in 2008, described  
          the specific measures ARB and others must take to reduce  
          statewide GHG emissions to 1990 levels by 2020.  Pursuant to AB  
          32, the reduction measures identified in the scoping plan had to  
          be proposed, reviewed, and adopted as individual regulations by  
          January 1, 2011, to become operative beginning on January 1,  
          2012.  According to ARB, a total reduction of 80 million metric  
          tons (MMT), or 16% compared to business as usual, is necessary  
          to achieve the 2020 limit.  Approximately 78% of the reductions  
          will be achieved through identified direct regulations.  ARB  
          proposes to achieve the balance of reductions necessary to meet  
          the 2020 limit (approximately 18 MMT) through a cap-and-trade  
          program that covers an estimated 600 entities.

          In October 2013, ARB released a scoping plan update discussion  
          draft.  The discussion draft proposed establishing both a 2050  
          target and a midterm (2030) target for GHG emission reductions.   
          In February 2014, ARB revised a revised proposed scoping plan  
          update.  The proposed update discusses the objective of  
          achieving an 80% reduction by 2050 and the need for a midterm  
          target, but does not propose or adopt a specific target.

          According to ARB, the update defines ARB's climate change  
          priorities for the next five years and sets the groundwork to  
          reach California's long-term climate goals set forth in  
          Executive Orders S-3-05 and B-16-2012.  The update will  
          highlight California's progress toward meeting the near-term  
          2020 GHG emission reduction goals defined in the initial scoping  
          plan.  These efforts put California on course to achieve the  
          near-term 2020 goal, and have created a framework for ongoing  
          climate action that can be built upon to maintain and continue  
          economic sector-specific reductions beyond 2020, as required by  
          AB 32.

          This bill requires ARB to include a proposal for further  
          reducing GHG emissions by 2050, including intermediate goals, in  








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          the next (2019) scoping plan update.  The current proposed  
          update arguably already includes 2050 and intermediate goal  
          "proposals," though it stops short of proposing or adopting  
          specific targets.  It makes sense that future scoping plan  
          updates should include proposals for long-term GHG emission  
          reductions, though it's possible that more formal 2050 and/or  
          mid-term targets may be set by legislative or regulatory action  
          prior to the 2019 deadline in this bill.

          As part of AB 32's initial implementation phase, the ETAAC was  
          formed to advise ARB on activities that will facilitate  
          investment in and implementation of technological research and  
          development opportunities, including, but not limited to,  
          identifying new technologies, research, demonstration projects,  
          funding opportunities, developing state, national, and  
          international partnerships and technology transfer  
          opportunities, and identifying and assessing research and  
          advanced technology investment and incentive opportunities that  
          will assist in the reduction of GHG emissions.  The ETAAC was  
          composed of experts and stakeholders, but was not focused on  
          economic analysis.  It worked 2007 through 2009, producing a  
          report recommending policies and technologies to reduce GHG  
          emissions in February 2008 and an update focused on advanced  
          technologies in December 2009.

          This bill would reinstate the ETAAC, limit it to 10 members who  
          are experts in energy technology and economics, and authorize  
          the committee to conduct an economic assessment that includes a  
          marginal cost analysis of various strategies for reducing GHG  
          emissions.

           
          Analysis Prepared by  :    Lawrence Lingbloom / NAT. RES. / (916)  
          319-2092 


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