BILL ANALYSIS                                                                                                                                                                                                    �



                                                               AB 2050
                                                                       

                       SENATE COMMITTEE ON ENVIRONMENTAL QUALITY
                               Senator Jerry Hill, Chair
                               2013-2014 Regular Session
                                            
           BILL NO:    AB 2050
           AUTHOR:     Quirk
           AMENDED:    June 10, 2014
           FISCAL:     Yes               HEARING DATE:     June 25, 2014
           URGENCY:    No                CONSULTANT:      Rebecca Newhouse
            
           SUBJECT  :    CALIFORNIA GLOBAL WARMINGS SOLUTION ACT OF 2006:   
                          SCOPING PLAN

            SUMMARY  :    
           
            Existing law  , under the California Global Warming Solutions Act  
           of 2006 (Health and Safety Code �38500 et seq.): 

           1) Requires the California Air Resources Board (ARB) to  
              determine the 1990 statewide greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions  
              level and approve a statewide GHG emissions limit that is  
              equivalent to that level, to be achieved by 2020, and to  
              adopt GHG emission reduction measures by regulation, and sets  
              certain requirements in adopting the regulations. 

           2) Requires ARB to prepare and approve a scoping plan by January  
              1, 2009, for achieving the maximum technologically feasible and  
              cost-effective reductions in GHG emissions from sources or  
              categories of sources of GHGs by 2020.  ARB must evaluate the  
              total potential costs and total potential economic and  
              noneconomic benefits of the plan for reducing GHGs to the  
              state's economy and public health, using the best economic  
              models, emission estimation techniques, and other scientific  
              methods.  The plan must be updated at least once every five  
              years.

           3) Requires the ARB to appoint an Economic and Technology  
              Advancement Advisory Committee (ETAAC) to advise on  
              technological research and development opportunities, and  
              authorizes the committee to advise the ARB on state,  
              regional, national, and international economic and  
              technological developments related to greenhouse gas emission  
              reductions.









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            This bill  : 

           1) Requires ARB, on or before January 1, 2019, as part of the  
              Scoping Plan Update, to include: 

              a)    A proposal for further reducing GHG emissions by 2050,  
                 including intermediate goals. 

              b)    An evaluation of these proposed goals based on what  
                 technologies can be scaled to the rest of the country and  
                 the world that assure cost-effectiveness and maintain  
                 local and system-wide reliability to the electrical grid.

              c)    Consistent metrics to accurately quantify GHG emissions  
                 reductions and measure the cost-effectiveness of various  
                 policies and technologies.

           2) Requires ARB to submit the element above to the appropriate  
              committees of the Legislature on or before January 1, 2019. 

           3) Requires ETAAC to include at least five, but no more than 10,  
              members who are experts in energy technology and economics.

           4) Strikes the authorization of the committee to advise the ARB  
              on state, regional, national, and international economic and  
              technological developments related to greenhouse gas emission  
              reductions, and specifies that ETAAC advise the ARB on  
              research and technology that will assist in the reduction of  
              greenhouse gas emissions on a global basis. 

           5) Requires ETAAC to conduct an economic assessment that  
              includes a marginal cost analysis of various strategies for  
              reducing GHG. 

           6) Makes various findings and declarations.

           7) Specifies that the requirements of the bill remain effective  
              only until January 1, 2019.

            COMMENTS  :










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            1) Purpose of Bill  .  According to the author, "The authority of  
              the Air Resources Board (ARB) to continue GHG reduction  
              programs (i.e. Cap and Trade, LCFS) post-2020 is ambiguous  
              and continues to be challenged by organization trying to halt  
              ARB's climate change strategies.  For examples, CalChamber  
              recently took ARB to court over the constitutionality over  
              ARB's cap and trade auctions. Although the Sacramento  
              Superior Court ultimately decided in favor of ARB, CalChamber  
              filed an appeal to overturn the cap-and-trade regulation. It  
              is not out of the realm of possibility, then, that further  
              attempts to challenge the validity or ARB run programs will  
              undoubtedly continue. ARB is in a continuous battle and needs  
              support from the Legislature, if these programs are to remain  
              operational. 

              "Furthermore, ARB's 2014 Scoping Plan falls short in  
              developing and providing quantifiable data so that  
              decision-makers can better determine how revenues from  
              Cap-and-Trade will be spent on different projects and  
              programs. Developing consistent metrics to evaluate various  
              regulations and technologies associated with the GHG  
              reduction will help improve our policies and the subsequent  
              investments that go along with them. 

              "Lastly, AB 32 established the Economic and Technology  
              Advancement Advisory Committee (ETAAC) to "advise the state  
              board [ARB] on state, regional, national, and international  
              economic and technological developments related to greenhouse  
              gas emissions."  Unfortunately, ETAAC was only involved in  
              the 2008 Scoping Plan and not involved at all in the 2014  
              Scoping Plan.  Instead, ARB took it upon themselves to  
              develop their own economic assessment of their own programs,  
              instead of doing what AB 32 explicitly required them to do.   
              Maintaining the principles of AB 32 should be sustained  
              throughout the duration of the programs established by law,  
              and not modified by the administrative agency as they deem  
              appropriate."

            2) Background  . The Scoping Plan was first approved by the ARB in  
              2008 and outlined a suite of measures aimed at achieving  
              1990-level emissions of 427 million metric tons of carbon  
              dioxide equivalent (MMTCO2e) in 2020. The plan originally  
              established the reductions from California's 2020 "business  









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              as usual"  GHG emissions projection to be 174 MMTCO2e, but  
              has since revised the estimate to 80 MMTCO2e, in part to  
              account for the economic downturn's impact on emission  
              levels. 

              The 2008 Scoping Plan recommended that reducing GHG emissions  
              from the wide variety of sources that make up the state's  
              emissions profile could best be accomplished through a  
              cap-and-trade program along with a mix of other strategies,  
              including the low carbon fuel standard (LCFS), light-duty  
              vehicle GHG standards, renewable energy requirements and  
              energy efficiency standards as well as other measures. 

              Pursuant to AB 32, the reduction measures identified in the  
              scoping plan had to be proposed, reviewed, and adopted as  
              individual regulations by January 1, 2011, to become  
              operative beginning on January 1, 2012. However, AB 32 does  
              not require the ARB to implement any or all measures in the  
              Scoping Plan.  As a result, there are various recommended GHG  
              reduction measures presented in the plan, but that were not  
              subsequently implemented in regulations.

              The basic design of the current program, as recommended by  
              the original Scoping Plan, and since adopted through  
              regulatory action, is that the combination of direct  
              regulatory measures and cap-and-trade is intended to achieve  
              the emission reduction target by 2020.  The breakdown of  
              emission reductions by measures is that over 40 percent of  
              the 80 MMTCO2e emission reductions needed to meet the 2020  
              goal are estimated to come from the cap-and-trade and LCFS  
              programs, with the remainder achieved through other direct  
              regulatory programs. 

               Updated Draft Scoping Plan  .  The ARB released a draft of the  
              updated Scoping Plan October 2013, and approved by the Board  
              on May 22, 2014. 

              The update asserts that California is on track to meet the  
              near-term 2020 greenhouse gas limit and is well positioned  
              to maintain and continue reductions beyond 2020 as required  
              by AB 32.  According to the updated plan, "This Update  
              identifies the next steps for California's leadership on  
              climate change.  While California continues on its path to  









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              meet the near-term 2020 greenhouse gas limit, it must also  
              set a clear path toward long-term, deep GHG emission  
              reductions.  This report highlights California's success to  
              date in reducing its GHG emissions and lays the foundation  
              for establishing a broad framework for continued emission  
              reductions beyond 2020, on the path to 80 percent below 1990  
              levels by 2050."  This 2050 goal was originally set forth in  
              Executive Order S-3-05, issued by Governor Schwarzenegger in  
              2005. 

              The Scoping Plan Update describes policies, actions, and  
              strategies in the energy, transportation, fuels,  
              agriculture, waste, and natural lands sectors as a means to  
              continue emissions reductions in each of these sectors.  The  
              draft also emphasizes the need for California to establish a  
              mid-term statewide emission reduction target "informed by  
              climate science, to frame the additional suite of policy  
              measures, regulations, planning efforts, and investments in  
              clean technologies that are needed to continue driving down  
              emissions."

              The Update includes a variety of actions in each identified  
              sector to achieve emissions reductions beyond 2020, but does  
              not specify reduction targets or timelines for these  
              measures. 

              This bill requires ARB to include a proposal for further  
              reducing GHG emissions by 2050, including intermediate  
              goals, in the next scoping plan update scheduled for 2019.   
              AB 2050 is not specific on what constitutes a "proposal,"  
              so, arguably, the actions proposed for various sectors in  
              the current Update could suffice.  AB 2050 would require,  
              however, that the next scoping plan update specify  
              intermediate targets along with their proposal for 2050 GHG  
              emission reductions.  

              AB 2050 would also require an evaluation in the next Scoping  
              Plan update focused on the cost-effective policies and  
              technologies in the proposal that can be scaled nationally  
              and internationally and maintain grid reliability. 

              An evaluation of this nature may be useful, but any  
              evaluation of a proposal to reduce GHG emission reductions  









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              by 2050 should also consider overall societal benefits,  
              including reductions in other air pollutants,  
              diversification of energy sources, and other benefits to the  
              economy, environment, and public health.

              During the Senate Environmental Quality Committee meeting on  
              June 18, 2014, concerns arose regarding whether AB 2050  
              appropriately balances economic considerations of GHG  
              emission reduction strategies with an evaluation of public  
              health, environmental and other societal benefits of those  
              strategies. 

              The following are proposed amendments to address those  
              concerns, as well as concerns of stakeholders regarding the  
              need to accelerate the timeframe of the analysis: 

                              Require the GHG emission reduction proposal  
                      and intermediate targets in a report from ARB to the  
                      Legislature by January 1, 2016.

                              Strike the language that focuses the  
                      evaluation on cost-effective policies that maintain  
                      grid reliability. 

                              Require ARB to perform an economic  
                      assessment, using the best available economic models  
                      and data, of the various strategies required to  
                      achieve the emissions reduction proposal and  
                      intermediate goals, and specify that the economic  
                      assessment may include a marginal cost analysis.

                              Require ARB to perform an analysis of the  
                      benefits to public health, and environmental and  
                      other benefits associated with various strategies  
                      required to achieve the GHG emission reduction  
                      proposal for 2050 and the intermediate targets.

                              Specify that consistent metrics for GHG  
                      emission reduction quantification also be developed  
                      to assess public health benefits.

                              Specify that the requirements in the bill  
                      are intended to assist in establishing state policy  









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                      and do not change statute or regulation, or  
                      regulatory decision.
           
                              Specify that the requirements of the bill  
                      remain effective only until January 1, 2016.

                              Strike all language in the bill regarding  
                      ETAAC. 
           
            
             1) ETAAC  .  AB 32 required the ARB to appoint the ETAAC to advise  
              the state board on activities that will facilitate investment  
              in and implementation of technological research and  
              development opportunities including, identifying new  
              technologies, research, demonstration projects, funding  
              opportunities, developing state, national, and international  
              partnerships and technology transfer opportunities, and  
              identifying and assessing research and advanced technology  
              investment and incentive opportunities that will assist in  
              the reduction of GHG emissions.  The ETAAC is composed of  
              stakeholders and experts representing, air quality, business,  
              labor, agriculture, environmental, and energy interests.  The  
              ETAAC first met in 2007, and held their last meeting in 2009.  
               They produced a report recommending policies and  
              technologies to reduce GHG emissions in February 2008 and an  
              update focused on advanced technologies in December 2009.  

               This bill would limit the ETAAC to 10 members (with a minimum  
              of five members) who are experts in energy technology and  
              economics, and require ETAAC to perform an economic  
              assessment, including a marginal cost analysis, or the  
              various GHG emission reduction strategies.

              Current law allows the ETAAC to advise ARB on state,  
              regional, national, and international economic and  
              technological developments related to GHG  reductions. The  
              bill strikes this requirement. The bill also would amend  
              current law by specifying ETAAC advise the ARB on research  
              and technology that will assist in the reduction of  
              greenhouse gas emissions on a global basis. 

              It is unclear why this language on the breadth of issues on  
              which the ETAAC may advise ARB was removed. Why shouldn't the  









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              ETAAC be able to advise on state, regional, national or  
              international issues concerning economic and technological  
              developments related to GHG emission reductions? In addition,  
              why should the advisory body be constrained to advise the ARB  
              on research and technology that will assist in the reduction  
              of greenhouse gas emissions only on a global basis? As an  
              advisory body, they should be able to provide more expert  
              analyses and information to the regulatory body, not less.

              The bill requires ETAAC to conduct an economic assessment  
              that includes a marginal cost analysis of various strategies  
              for reducing GHG emissions.

              By only requiring ETAAC to include a marginal cost analysis  
              in their required economic assessment, the bill prioritizes  
              this analysis above any other type of economic assessment or  
              analysis ETAAC may perform to fulfill its duties in advising  
              ARB in implementing AB 32.  Although this type of analysis  
              may be useful, economic experts from ETAAC should determine  
              whether or not it should be included in a broader economic  
              assessment performed for the purposes of advising ARB on  
              implementing the goals of AB 32.

              Proposed amendments strike any reference to ETAAC from the  
              bill, and instead direct ARB to conduct an economic  
              assessment, that may, but is not required to, include a  
              marginal cost analysis. 
               
           2) Related Legislation  .  

               a)    SB 1078 (Jackson) of 2014, requires the California  
                 Public Utilities and California Energy Commission to set  
                 GHG reduction targets for the electricity sector for  
                 consideration in their long-term energy planning. SB 1078  
                 is currently in the Senate Rules Committee. 

              b)    SB 1125 (Pavley) of 2014, requires the ARB to develop  
                 quantitative GHG emission reduction and short-lived  
                 climate pollutant reduction targets for 2030. SB 1125 was  
                 held on the Senate Appropriations Suspense file. 

              c)    SB 605 (Lara) of 2013, requires the ARB, when updating  
                 the Scoping Plan, prioritize measures to achieve  









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                 reductions in short-lived climate pollutants with high  
                 global warming potentials. SB 605 is currently in the  
                 Assembly Appropriations Committee.
               

           SOURCE  :        Author  

           SUPPORT :       California Energy Efficiency Industry Council
                          Large Scale Solar Association
            
           OPPOSITION  :    None on file